007 
FXUS62 KMLB 281421
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cluster of convection just offshore this morning indicative of 
increased moisture in veering E/SE flow. The storms over the 
Atlantic will not push onshore as the sea breeze circulation 
develops. However, with strong sfc heating, additional showers and 
storms will form just inland from the Treasure coast of Indian 
River, St Lucie and Martin counties. Coverage should increase over 
the interior this afternoon in the more moist S/SE flow aloft. 

Morning Cape sounding shows fairly steep lapse rates between 700-
500mb with a cold 500mb temp of -9.7C. The dry air aloft is in a 
good position to produce strong wind gusts in storms. The MDPI is 
1.33. 

No significant changes to temps/pops/winds in current forecast 
showing highest rain chances (40-50 percent) over interior sections 
and the lowest (25 percent) along the Volusia coast. 

We are providing weather support for a prescribed burn in southern 
Osceola county. The smoke plume should show up on radar should they 
decide to go ahead with the burn. 


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. However, an increase in moisture will lead 
to greater coverage of showers and storms across the area today. 
Showers and isolated storms will develop just inland from VRB-FPR-
SUA and spread north/inland toward MCO/SFB/LEE this aftn. So added 
TEMPO MVFR in TSRA to the 12Z TAFs for interior terminals, incl. 
MCO. Brief MVFR CIGs expected through 16Z as initial cu form in 
moist low levels.  

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Low level winds have veered slightly, now out of the 
E/SE with speeds 10-12 knots. Pockets of deep convection with 
frequent lightning and gusty winds near 30 knots just offshore 
Brevard and Treasure coast this morning will gradually decrease 
during the day. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. An increase in 
showers and storms are expected over the local Atlc waters tonight 
as an inverted trough moves into the region. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  87  74 /  30  30  60  20 
MCO  92  75  87  74 /  40  20  70  20 
MLB  89  77  86  75 /  40  30  70  40 
VRB  89  75  87  73 /  40  40  70  50 
LEE  93  76  89  75 /  40  20  70  30 
SFB  92  75  89  73 /  30  20  70  20 
ORL  93  75  88  74 /  40  20  70  20 
FPR  89  75  88  74 /  40  40  70  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Rodriguez