978 
FXUS62 KJAX 232041
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
441 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...

...ISOLATED AFTERNOON STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE... 

.NEAR TERM (Through Monday night)... 

Less coverage of storms today due to drier and more stable 
air on the eastern side of a deep layer ridge building into
the area in the wake of yesterday's upper short wave trough. 
There was a band of scattered storms moving Se across Se Ga
out ahead of a stalled frontal boundary. These storms will 
continue to move Se the next few hours and produce locally 
heavy rain with strong and gusty winds. A few isolated showers 
or storms will also be possible along a weak seabreeze along 
the coast. Showers/storms will fade out in the evening after 
the loss of heating.   

Another hot and dry day in store for Monday with only a brief 
shower or storm possible as deep layer ridging continues over 
the area. Afternoon high temps expected to reach the the mid 
to upper 90s with afternoon heat indices around 105 degrees.    

.SHORT TERM (Tuesday-Wednesday night)...  

The deep layer ridge over the area will retrograde to the 
gulf coast with weak troughing developing over the area on 
the eastern periphery of the ridge. This results in a slight 
uptick in pops as weak disturbances will be riding around 
the periphery of the ridge and steering flow light enough 
for both east west seabreezes to merge inland producing 
isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and early evening 
storms. Strong daytime heating will result in some storms 
becoming strong and producing strong wind gusts. Hot afternoon 
temps in the mid to upper 90s combined with the humidity will 
produce afternoon heat indices of around 105 degrees each day.  

.LONG TERM (Thursday-Sunday)...

Weak troughing will continue across the area through at least 
the end of the week until a deep layer western Atlantic 
ridge begins to build in. Moisture and instability in 
combination with seabreezes will help generate scattered 
mainly afternoon and evening storms each day. A slight 
down tick in temps but still averaging near to slightly 
above normal.         

&&

.AVIATION...Much drier and more stable today with inland westerly
flow and winds expected to back SSE near the coast this afternoon
as east coast sea breeze drifts inland across NE FL terminals.
Stronger westerly flow over SE GA will keep the east coast sea
breeze pinned along the coast at SSI. Included VCSH at GNV over
the next few hours, then VCSH at VQQ, SGJ, CRG and JAX into the
early evening. Best chance of TS will focus near SSI late
afternoon and early evening where VCTS was advertised around 20Z.
Rain chances decrease quickly this evening with a better chance of
low stratus and shallow ground fog developing across inland NE FL
late tonight due to high pressure building over the area and
lingering low level moisture from todays spotty showers. Trended
toward MVFR at GNV and VQQ after 07Z Sunday. Prevailing VFR
conditions expected after low stratus lifts/erodes Sun morning
with again prevailing westerly flow in the morning, then winds
becoming onshore near the coast in the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...High pressure ridge south of the waters will move 
to the west of the waters though mid week providing light 
West to Northwest winds except for seabreezes along the 
coast in the afternoon and evening. A western Atlantic 
ridge will build in across the waters towards the end 
of the week with winds becoming southeast and increasing 
some by the end of the period although no headlines expected. 

Rip Currents: Low risk expected Monday.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  20  20 
SSI  76  94  76  93 /  30  10  10  10 
JAX  73  97  73  95 /  20  10   0  20 
SGJ  75  94  75  93 /  20  10   0  30 
GNV  72  95  74  96 /  10   0   0  20 
OCF  72  94  73  95 /  10   0   0  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

PP/AE/WC