542 
FXUS63 KBIS 221355
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
855 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Main issue this morning is the wind across western ND. Sustained
winds thus far have remained below wind advisory criteria
(30mph), but a rogue gust to 45 mph has occurred at Williston
then quickly weakened below wind gust advisory criteria shortly 
thereafter (in next 5 to 10 minute observations). This scenario 
both with the sustained winds and gusts mentioned above is expected
to play out this morning and early afternoon as the wind field 
expands south and east. Looking at the BUFKIT RAP soundings mixing
heights and associated wind speeds across the northwest, expect 
the gusty wind field to expand towards Dickinson, Garrison, Minot,
and into Sherwood. These winds will reach their peak through 
early afternoon, then begin to slowly wane. With infrequent 
occurrences (much less than the one hour needed for sustained and 
wind gusts reaching criteria), will not issue any wind headlines 
yet, but will monitor to see just how much and how often these 
winds mix down to the surface this morning before deciding if a 
wind advisory is necessary. 

Otherwise, showers will propagate back into northwestern ND later 
this morning and through the afternoon per CAM's. Previous 
forecast has this and the winds handled well, thus no changes to 
the previous forecast. Will need to watch for funnel clouds as 
also mentioned in the previous forecast discussion. Current SPC 
mesoanalysis as a lobe of surface vorticity maximized over 
northeastern Montana this morning. GFS 0-3km CAPE of between 
400-500 J/Kg is forecast to overlap this vorticity field as it 
propagates into northwestern ND from 18z- 00z.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Based on observed winds this morning across northwest North
Dakota, did increase winds for the remainder of the day towards
the higher edge of the forecast envelope across the west and most
of the central. Wind gusts could approach advisory criteria, near
45 mph, across the west and north central. Will hold off on an 
advisory for now and see how winds trend as mixing heights 
increase through the morning.

Also, added a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon and
early evening along the surface trough across central North
Dakota, which the 00-10 UTC CAMs do depict. Mid level lapse rates
will be weak, so the thunderstorm potential is low. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

A windy day highlights the short term forecast.

Deep low pressure across northeast Montana and southern
Saskatchewan early this morning will continue to slowly propagate
north-northeast through the day. Windy conditions already ongoing
across northwest North Dakota will spread across the majority of 
western and central North Dakota today. Southwest gusts of 
30-35kts are expected. Lake Oahe through the James River Valley 
are expected to have significantly weaker winds.

Otherwise for today, the dry slot of the aforementioned low will
keep most of southwest and central North Dakota dry. Isolated
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
James River Valley, with a greater coverage of rain showers and
a few thunderstorms across the northwest and far north central in
wrap around moisture. This is well depicted by the 00-06 UTC CAMS. 
Severe weather is not expected today. However, cannot rule out
funnel clouds across the northwest and far north central given the
proximity to the low. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Increasing temperatures, humidity, and severe potential mid to 
late next week highlights the extended forecast.

Again well represented by the 00 UTC GEFS 850mb T, 2m dewpoint,
and CAPE plumes, increasing temperatures, humidity, and severe
potential continues to be favored for mid to late next week. This
signal continues to be consistent in the CIPS analogs temperature
anomalies and severe report analogs with southwest flow aloft. 
High temperatures in the 80s and possibly the 90s are forecast by 
late next week with very humid conditions. Given the favorable 
synoptic setup and context from the analogs, this period will also
have to be monitored for severe thunderstorm threats. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Southwest winds with gusts of 30-40kts will continue this morning
across northwest North Dakota. Strong southwest winds will expand
across most of western and central North Dakota through the day 
with southwest gusts of 30-40kts. Winds will be much weaker at
KJMS. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected 
across northwest and far north central North Dakota, and across 
the James River Valley today. Isolated afternoon rain showers
could develop near KBIS as well. MVFR ceilings are possible 
across the northwest this morning. Low level wind shear is 
possible northwest and north central this morning as well. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA