438 
FXUS63 KOAX 161738
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The early morning upper-air pattern is characterized by a split-
flow regime, featuring a polar-branch low over Saskatchewan and 
Manitoba, and a subtropical-branch shortwave trough traversing 
the southern Plains. We will remain between those two disturbances
today with weak surface high pressure yielding dry conditions. 
Afternoon temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight into Monday, the surface ridge axis begins to erode with
modest low-level warm advection supporting an increasing chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across northeast NE 
into west-central IA. Increasing clouds and areas of precipitation
will modulate temperatures with highs on Monday ranging from the 
mid to upper 70s over northeast NE to lower to mid 80s along the 
KS border.

Monday night into Tuesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to
emerge from the central Rockies and translate into the mid to
lower MO Valley, inducing a weak wave along a surface front
sagging south through the area. Forcing for ascent attendant to
the disturbance coupled with convergence/uplift along the front
will support a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, 
especially on Tuesday. Severe weather potential currently appears
low. Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

While specific details vary, latest medium-range guidance 
suggests the development of a prominent long-wave trough over the
western U.S. by late week. Such a pattern evolution would signal
a potentially active period of severe weather, especially from 
about Friday into next weekend. High temperatures will be near
seasonal normals. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A weak cold front slipping into northeast Nebraska after midnight
may trigger isolated thunderstorms near KOFK between 08Z and 14Z.
More development could occur near 18Z at all TAF sites, but more
likely after this TAF cycle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
light north to northeast winds less than 12kt. Increasing mid 
level moisture will result in VFR cigs near FL100 later this 
evening, then lowering to FL050 by late Monday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Dergan