National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2019-06-13 09:02 UTC
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314 FXUS65 KABQ 130902 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 302 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and breezy to windy conditions return to most areas today. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are forecast for the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Dry air will push in from the west on Friday on brisk west winds, allowing a few valley locations east of the central mountain chain to hit triple digits. Slightly cooler air moves in over the weekend along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially north and east. && .DISCUSSION... Return southeasterly low-level flow has developed across much of the forecast area this morning. Dewpoint temperatures continue to tick upward at most sites overnight with each passing hour. NAM12 continues to impress with instability across eastern NM this afternoon and evening (lifted indices ranging from -5 to -8C) and with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear progged for this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms that develop east of the central mountain chain will likely go severe, especially northeast plains. Large hail and gusty winds expected to be the main threats. A few of the storms could linger near the TX line until midnight or so. Enough Gulf moisture moves up into the lower RGV this morning for a few thunderstorms in Socorro County this afternoon and possible a storm or two farther north in the mid RGV. Friday still looks like the hottest day of the week, especially east. Breezy to windy conditions develop all areas as a weak upper- level trough moves into AZ and west winds aloft over NM increase. Triple digit heat is looking likely in the lower elevations of the eastern plains Friday afternoon., particularly for the usual suspects in Roswell and Tucumcari. The trough over AZ slides east over NM on Saturday, bringing a slightly cooler airmass along with Pacific moisture to central and northern portions of the state. Enough moisture moves in for isolated showers and thunderstorms central with scattered storms developing along a backdoor boundary across northeast NM. The above mentioned trough moves over northeast NM on Sunday and with low-level moisture progged to increase further on Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase somewhat over west-central and especially northeast NM Sunday afternoon and evening. Little change is expected Monday and Tuesday as low-level moisture changes little and another weak upper-level trough/low moves over southern CA/western AZ. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... We'll close out the work week with a warming/drying trend that will send daytime temperatures above normal areawide by Friday with very low humidity and increasing wind as a weak Pacific trough approaches from over AZ/UT. Haines values of 6 and excellent mixing of the boundary layer are forecast Friday, along with humidity easily hitting critical threshold. Despite the deep layer mixing, winds will have a hard time reaching critical threshold across western New Mexico while fuels will likely not be supportive of large fire growth across eastern New Mexico. The Pacific trough will move overhead on Saturday, bringing some cooling and a round of storms to northern New Mexico. A weak Pacific low will approach and pull-up stationary over southern California early next week, which may help to pull low layer moisture westward and fuel rounds of wetting storms. A trend toward warmer and drier conditions are forecast for the later half of next week as the subtropical high expands across the southwest U.S. 11 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, except for possible MVFR cigs at KTCC and KROW early Thursday morning. That said, forecast confidence is too low to include in those TAFs at this time. A round of storms is forecast to develop along and east of the Rio Grande Valley Thursday afternoon and may impact several central and eastern terminals, but the highest probabilities are at KROW and KTCC during the late afternoon and early evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 92 55 90 54 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 85 47 83 44 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 85 53 85 49 / 5 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 48 87 46 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 45 85 45 / 5 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 47 88 46 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 53 86 48 / 5 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 58 85 55 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 46 75 42 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 61 88 57 / 10 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 80 54 82 52 / 10 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 49 81 45 / 20 10 5 5 Red River....................... 71 42 69 38 / 20 10 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 75 34 77 33 / 20 20 5 5 Taos............................ 84 45 84 42 / 10 10 5 0 Mora............................ 81 49 82 46 / 20 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 87 57 89 52 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 58 86 55 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 55 89 52 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 62 91 60 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 64 92 63 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 60 96 58 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 61 93 60 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 58 97 56 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 62 92 60 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 60 97 60 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 57 88 56 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 88 54 89 52 / 10 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 50 88 49 / 10 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 84 55 85 53 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 85 56 88 54 / 30 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 60 88 60 / 20 20 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 52 78 51 / 20 30 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 49 86 48 / 30 20 10 5 Raton........................... 86 47 88 48 / 20 20 10 5 Springer........................ 92 48 93 47 / 20 20 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 83 51 85 49 / 10 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 85 56 91 56 / 30 20 5 5 Roy............................. 87 54 91 53 / 20 20 5 5 Conchas......................... 92 62 98 60 / 20 20 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 91 61 97 62 / 20 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 92 66 100 63 / 20 20 5 0 Clovis.......................... 87 62 96 62 / 20 20 10 0 Portales........................ 88 63 97 63 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 88 65 99 64 / 20 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 91 64 101 64 / 20 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 88 62 91 61 / 20 30 0 0 Elk............................. 83 59 86 57 / 20 20 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33