526 
FXUS63 KFSD 121727
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

A few lingering light showers remain with broad lift still over our 
area associated with exiting wave from yesterday. These should 
continue to fade as we approach the daybreak hours and broad 
subsidence begins to set in. 

The daytime hours will serve up mostly quiet conditions and sunshine 
as surface high pressure builds thru the day. With that said, expect 
breezy conditions along and east of I-29 with a well mixed 
atmosphere. In fact, forecast soundings suggest enough mixing to 
pull down a few gusts around or perhaps over 30 kts at times and 
thus nudged winds in this direction. Afternoon high temperatures 
will be fighting mid level cool advection but should still make it 
into at least the mid 60s to lower 70s. Leaned toward the higher end 
of guidance given the overall low bias as of late. The one potential 
exception to the previously mentioned quiet weather would be a weak 
wave sneaking down the back side of the exiting trough. This will 
spark a few weak, elevated showers over the central Dakotas that may 
sneak into our counties along and west of the James River before 
fading toward sunset. As has been the case lately, a dry sub-cloud 
layer and inverted V soundings will likely eat up much of any 
falling precipitation and thus have largely kept POPs in the slight 
chance mention range. With lighter winds and good radiational 
cooling, overnight temperatures will drop into the 40s, perhaps low 
40s in some locations. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Surface ridge axis shifts east by Thursday with a northwest flow 
regime aloft. With mid level warm advection/increasing 850 mb temps, 
will see high temperatures Thursday afternoon rise into the 70s to 
near 80. Latest GFS hints at a few weak showers Thursday afternoon 
with a well positioned exiting jet streak but given moisture 
profiles and lack of model consensus, will leave the forecast dry 
for now. 

A somewhat messy extended forecast is expected with a quasi-zonal 
flow riddle with occasional disturbances. As would be expected, the 
various model solutions differ in the details in timing of each of 
these disturbances thus making timing precipitation chances tough. 
At this time, the better chances appear to arrive Friday and then 
again later on Saturday, but confidence is fairly low and thus left 
the populated blended guidance other than bumping up POPs a bit late 
Saturday. Instability values become notable by Friday and into the 
weekend, although shear values remain subpar. With that said, while 
significant severe weather doesn't appear likely, a few strong to 
severe storms are possible from Friday into the weekend depending on 
the eventual timing of individual waves and convective contamination 
from previous activity. SPC has highlighted our western 2/3rds in a 
Marginal Risk for Friday which seems reasonable. 

Temperatures should continue to warm from Friday into the weekend 
with mid 70s to mid 80s being the general rule of thumb.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

VFR through the period. Isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will be possible into the evening along and west of
the James River.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...08