610 
FXUS61 KBGM 081902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the
weekend with dry conditions. Frontal system affects the area  
Monday into Tuesday with heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
High pressure builds back in behind the front on Tuesday, but
another front brings a threat for showers by Thursday.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure/omega block continues over the region, with warm
and dry conditions expected through the remainder of the
weekend. Although Sunday will be dry we will see mid to upper
level cloud cover increase through the day as high pressure slides
eastward. With the high shifting east Sunday evening through 
Monday morning, southerly return flow will ramp up moisture out
ahead of an approaching cold front. Although most of the rain 
will fall after 12Z Monday, some light showers will be possible 
before daybreak across NE Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A more active weather pattern is shaping up during this time frame, 
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms 
Monday and Monday night.

Sunday night: High pressure moves off the New England coast and a 
southerly return flow develops. Moisture slowly increases as a 
weakening mid/upper level low slowly approaches from the Tennessee 
Valley region. Introduce a slight chance to chance (NE PA, central 
southern tier of NY) PoPs for scattered showers; especially during 
the very late overnight and predawn hours Monday. Mild with lows in 
the mid-50s to around 60. Southeast winds increase between 7-15 mph 
and gusty at times over the hilltops. Surface dewpoints in the 40s 
quickly rise toward daybreak, especially south.

Monday: Deep, moist southerly flow continues to increase over the 
region as upper level energy moves into the Central Great Lakes 
region and a surface low develops in lower Michigan. By early 
afternoon the surface frontal boundary will extend from southern 
Ontario south into Ohio and eastern Kentucky. Prefrontal shortwave 
will bring periods of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two 
during the day. Subtropical air mass arrives later in the day 
from the south as PWATS rise between 1.75-2.00 inches and 
surface dew points reach 60-65. Introduced a chance of localized
heavy rain showers into the forecast grids during this period. 
Overall instability still looks low through the day...with 
perhaps a few hundred J/Kg in our southern zones. High 
temperatures reach into the 70s, with south winds 10-20 mph. 
Rainfall amounts should be mainly under a half inch during the 
day time hours Monday.

Monday night: Nearly tropical air mass is advected into our 
area just ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary, which 
will swing through our area from west to east during this 
period. PWATs may exceed 2 inches just ahead of the boundary as 
dew points reach the mid-60s. Bufkit soundings also show warm 
cloud layer depths up to 12k ft and a 40-45kt low level jet. 
Still not a lot of instability, but the potential is certainly 
there for a rather short (less than 12 hour) period of locally 
heavy rain. Still think that area average rainfall will mainly 
be 1-2 inches from later Monday into early Tuesday morning...but
if localized locations see training showers or thunderstorms 
rainfall amounts could be higher. This will be a very efficient,
tropical like warm rain. WPC now has portions of our area under
a marginal to even slight risk of excessive rainfall. Will add 
in a mention of the heavy rain potential into the HWO product. 
By dawn the front should be east of I-81 and quickly moving 
east. The rain will end fairly fast from west to east behind the
front. Mild with overnight lows 55-63.

Tuesday: Some lingering showers mainly before 10 AM across our far 
eastern zones, then a drier and cooler west-northwest flow develops 
during the afternoon. It will still be partly sunny and cannot rule 
out a stray shower, mainly north in the afternoon. Breezy with 
northwest winds 10-20 mph and gusty at times. Cooler and less humid 
with highs 65-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will see high pressure move across the 
region as yet another southern branch feature teams up with an 
digging upper level trough. Cool overnight lows 45-50, then warming 
well into the 70s by Wednesday afternoon. This fair weather Tuesday 
night and Wednesday will give way to another round of rain (and a 
slight chance of thunderstorms) on Thursday as a coastal low quickly 
approaches. This is then followed by wrap around rain showers and 
cooler temperatures on Friday as the upper level trough moves overhead.
Highs are forecast to be in the mid-60s to lower 70s, with overnight
lows in the 50s. Most of the latest guidance has a zonal, or 
slightly anticyclonic flow over the region for next Saturday, 
leading to drying and warming weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure with VFR conditions expected through the period.
Next system will approach overnight on Sunday.

Outlook...

Through Sunday night...VFR.

Monday morning through early Tuesday...Frontal system brings 
showers and associated restrictions. A thunderstorm will also 
possible.

Midday Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...DJN/MJM
AVIATION...MPK