365 
FXUS62 KFFC 081433 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Deep moisture rotating around the upper low has lead to 
showers and thunderstorms over n and portions of central
GA this morning, with heavy rain associated. Have gotten
reports of water over some roads where the heaviest rain 
persisted for a period of time. Occasional showers and storms
are expected through the afternoon.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 734 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019/ 

UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA entering the ATL metro area about on schedule so no big
changes to PoP or Wx needed. Again no strong convection expected
this morning, just embedded/elevated TSRA this morning followed by
a break and then scattered TSRA after 3PM. Considered FF.A for far
NE counties but not seeing sufficient amount of rain to exceed
guidance. Looks much more likely just NE of CWA. Will continue to
monitor.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019/ 

.Morning Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Primary concern in the short term period is timing of rounds of 
precip and PoPs. 

Very moist pattern continues with upper low centered over western TN 
trapped under large eastern CONUS ridge. Will be similar pattern to 
last two days, but more clouds and cooler temps (and lower 
instability) than yday. Timing rounds of precip especially 
challenging with tropical airmass and very little lift needed to 
initiate convection. Models often struggle with this. Based on 
consensus of hires model guidance, appears one round of more 
widespread SHRA/embedded TSRA this morning then more scattered 
SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon. Any storms will have high precip 
efficiency but with limited instability and moderately strong 
(~25kts) winds aloft, rain rates should stay in check. FF guidance 
has dropped some but not seeing potential to exceed new guidance.

For Sunday, upper low moves only a little east while filling in. 
Trough axis still to our west so another wet day. Flow aloft will be 
weaker so could see locally high amounts of rain. Will need to 
recheck potential for flash flooding on later shifts.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Rain, Rain, Go Away! That will be the feeling by the time we start 
the long term period, but there's no relief in site until Thursday. 

By Monday morning, the low-pressure system that will be anchored 
over the Southeastern U.S. will be partially swept up by a shortwave 
trough moving through the Eastern CONUS. A cold front will also be 
moving into the area Monday morning as well but is expected to stall 
through the forecast area. While most of the energy will be swept 
up, some remnant of the low-pressure will remain and continue to 
pump moisture from the Gulf into the forecast area.

A second shortwave trough will dig into the area by Wednesday night, 
which will sweep up the rest of the low-pressure system, push a cold 
front completely through the forecast area and replace the current 
airmass with a dry area of high pressure. There will still be a 15% 
to 30% chance for rain on Thursday as the rain move out of the area 
but afterwords clear skies are expected for the first time all week. 
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s expected through the week.

Thiem

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR cigs will continue this morning, improving to MVFR after 14Z.
Widespread SHRA with some isold embedded TS will move out of ATL 
area airports after 14Z, though there is still uncertainty on 
exact timing of rounds of SHRA/TSRA. After main round this 
morning, sct SHRA/TSRA again likely to develop after 19-20Z with 
widespread MVFR cigs around 2500-3000ft continuing. Sfc winds 
will remain SE 5-10kts today, decreasing to 3-5kts after 01Z, then
increasing slightly after 14Z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence on SHRA vs VCSH timing.
Medium confidence on TSRA timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  68  80  67 /  80  70  80  80 
Atlanta         78  70  80  69 / 100  60  70  70 
Blairsville     73  63  74  62 /  90  70  70  70 
Cartersville    78  68  81  67 /  80  60  70  60 
Columbus        82  70  82  69 /  80  60  70  60 
Gainesville     75  68  77  68 /  80  80  80  80 
Macon           82  68  82  67 /  80  60  70  60 
Rome            78  68  82  67 /  80  60  60  60 
Peachtree City  79  67  80  66 / 100  60  70  60 
Vidalia         85  71  86  71 /  80  50  60  60 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL