488 
FXUS65 KABQ 071124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Ridge of higher pressure aloft to dominate the area today. Daytime 
heating will touch off a few -SHRA/TSRA vicinity of the higher 
terrain NC/NE NM by 18Z-19Z. Convective activity may expand in 
coverage as it slowly moves to the E-SE during the afternoon and 
evening. Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible across the 
high plains, mainly the northeast. Will carry VCSH placeholders at 
KTCC and KLVS. Elsewhere, VFR condtions to predominate through at 
least 12Z Sat with very isolated virga showers possible CONTDVD to
the Rio Grande Valley toward 00Z-01Z. Relatively light surface winds
away from PM convective shower activity. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures can be expected across the Land of Enchantment 
today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms forming
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A couple of these
storms may be capable of large hail and strong gusty winds from the
mid-afternoon through early evening hours. Saturday will be warmer
excluding the Four Corners with a few breezes across the northeast
highlands/plains. A potent backdoor cold front will likely be a big
game changer for early next week as it will bring notably colder air
and increased precipitation chances as it pushes its way toward the
Continental Divide. It will also bring very gusty gap winds Sunday 
evening and overnight. It appears the most active or wet day will be 
on Monday, with scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms 
along and east of the Continental Divide. The active pattern could 
persist through the mid- to latter parts of next week across central 
and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Biggest forecast challenge for this package is focused squarely on 
the timing of a strong backdoor cold front and the potential impacts
to afternoon highs and precipitation chances in its wake.

Starting with today... upper level ridge bisecting NM will continue 
to slowly progress eastward. Enough instability coupled with a weak 
shortwave currently ejecting out of southern AZ per GOES water vapor
loop should kick off a few storms over the northern mountains, with 
the best chances across the Sangres. Convection will likely struggle
to organize initially given 0-6km bulk shear values around 20kts. As
the afternoon progresses, MLCAPE is progged by the SREF to rise into
the 750-1250 J/kg range along with increasing bulk shear (25-35 kts).
Confidence in getting a severe report is marginal given the rising 
500mb heights, but the best chances would favor Colfax to Union and 
northern Quay counties from 22Z-01Z, where hail and gusty winds are 
possible. High temperatures today will be a few degrees above normal.
Albuquerque may reach its first 90 degree day of the season. If this
occurs, it would be the latest first 90-degree day of a season since
1999 (June 22).

Quiet weather for Saturday as the ridge flattens in response to an 
upper level trough traversing the northern Rockies. This could allow
for afternoon breezes along/east of the Sangres. Warmer temperatures 
are expected over the plains with widespread 90s and even the first 
100-degree day possible for Roswell, NM. Meanwhile, KABQ will have a
second opportunity to reach 90F.

Deterministic models bring an unseasonably strong backdoor front to
the northeast plains Saturday evening and drives it southward during
the overnight hours thru Sunday. The saga continues regarding timing
of this front, and this will have a notable impact on high temps in 
its wake. The MET is literally 15F to 25F colder compared to its MAV
counterpart on Sun. Even the SREF plumes are chaotic at best, with 
solutions ranging from 65F to 100F at Roswell. To prevent windshield 
wiping of the forecast, nudged forecast to the GFS/ECMWF solution. A 
potential upcoming hazard will be the gap winds Sun evening through 
Mon morning. The MEX and ECM show 39 kts and 36 kts respectively, so 
there is potential for wind headlines in the future. To complicate 
matters even further, models don't even agree on potential QPF with 
the GFS/Canadian being the wet solution and NAM/ECMWF favoring a dry 
frontal passage. Pattern recognition in these moist scenarios suggest
higher PoPs are prudent. Monday appears to be very active across New
Mexico as the upr level flow shifts to a northwest component, opening
the door for shortwaves to traverse the region over a moist/unstable
air mass. Historically, this setup would also favor severe t-storms. 
Only time will tell if this materializes.

Predictability beyond Monday is rather low; however, northwest flow 
would favor a persistent wet pattern as boundary-layer moisture is 
recycled. Drier weather could materialize late next week, especially
for western/central NM as upper level westerlies increase. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably warm/dry conditions can be expected for a vast majority 
of the area today as high pressure aloft dominates. Max temps should 
top yesterday's readings by 3-8F at most locales with afternoon 
humidities dropping into the teens below 7000 feet central and west. 
A few showers/t-storms will develop over the higher terrain of NC/NE 
New Mexico during the afternoon. This activity could briefly become 
strong/severe on the high plains late in the day/early evening. More 
pronounced air mass drying is anticipated on Saturday as the upper 
ridge flattens. MinRH values in the single digits to lower teens will
be common for central/western areas with teens to near 20 east. This
drying will accompany slightly stronger 20-foot winds, especially 
across the eastern plains. However, green-up conditions and winds 
below critical thresholds will broadly preclude a mention of critical
fire weather at this time.
  
Focus will then shift to a strong backdoor cold front that will 
begin to influence the area late in the weekend. A moist easterly 
push is expected to reach the Continental Divide later Sunday 
evening with strengthening gap winds along the central valley 
corridor Sunday PM. This moist backdoor front will set the stage for
a cooler and potentially wet pattern for many areas Monday. Moisture
recycling into isolated/scattered thunderstorms beneath a persistent
northwest flow aloft looks to be the pattern Tuesday through Thurs. 
It's not until late next week when stronger westerlies begin to scrub
the moisture eastward. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$