718 
FXUS61 KCAR 070747
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
347 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the area this morning. A cold 
front will enter the area from the northwest this afternoon, 
and exit southeast of the area this evening. High pressure 
builds across the region behind the cold front through the 
weekend then slowly moves southeast of the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Plenty of sunshine is expected to start the day before clouds
begin to increase across northern areas in advance of an 
approaching short wave and surface cold front from Quebec. 
Limited low level moisture and surface based CAPEs this 
afternoon, thus no mention of thunder. However, will include 
mention of isolated to scattered shower (20-30% POPs), mainly 
across central and northern areas this afternoon. High 
temperatures this afternoon will once again climb into the lower
to mid 70s ahead of the front. Temperatures along the coast 
likely to remain in the mid to upper 60s with onshore flow 
expected. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued today for 
the downeast coast. 

Any remaining isolated to scattered showers will quickly 
diminish by early evening as the surface cold front exits the 
downeast coast, as Canadian high pressure begins to build toward
the region from Quebec. Frost not expected to be a concern 
tonight with center of high still well back to our northwest, 
allowing for enough of wind to stir the air. That being said, a 
few lows in the upper 30s are possible across the North Woods
by daybreak Saturday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sat and Sat ngt looks to be msly fair with temps a little below
seasonal norms as Can sfc hi pres slowly builds from Cntrl Can.
Sun looks to be msly fair with warming temps across the FA as 
sfc hi pres slowly settles ovr the Gulf of ME. A band of mid 
cldnss may traverse NNW to SSE across the FA late Sat ngt into 
Sun as warmer air from S Cntrl Can tries to advc Ewrd toward our
Rgn with a slgt chc of lgt shwrs across the far N. This band of
cldnss and associated lgt rn shwrs should move E of the FA Sun
ngt as a warm front apchs the Ern ME/NB prov border.  

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The consensus of latest model guidance shows more potential of 
warmer air reaching our FA on Mon, but with the upper ridge 
being squashed from persistent upper troffiness ovr the Ern Can 
Maritimes and a new advcg upper trof from the great lks, its 
still somewhat uncertain how much of the warmer air is destined
to arrive into our FA Mon, but it's a good bet it will be the
warmest day of the early summer season so far with ptly to msly
sunny skies. 

The upper trof and associated sfc low pres from the great lks 
will bring the Rgn increasing cldnss Mon ngt with the next 
shwr/rn event Tue into Tue ngt, with the highest, categorical 
PoPs, Tue aftn into Tue eve with sig rnfl potential arnd a half
inch or so. Any lingering shwrs late Tue ngt will give way to 
partial clrg for the FA on Wed. Due to cld cvr and shwrs/rn, hi 
temps will be cooler Tue with some recovery on Wed with more 
sunshine across the Rgn. 

Thu will begin fair under a strong upper ridge ovr Nrn new Eng,
but clds will be on the increase Thu aftn as low pres from the
mid Atlc states begins to move toward our Rgn, with shwrs/rn
from this system xpctd to arrive by Thu ngt. Given that this
system is at the outer domain of the long range, kept max PoPs
in the hi chc range, but xpct PoPs to ramp up as we get closer
to this event. Hi temps Thu should at least reach seasonal norms
spcly ovr the N with at least some morn sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions through tonight. Sea breeze expected
to affect KBHB this afternoon. An isolated shower is possible 
this afternoon, mainly northern terminals 20z to 01z. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR xpctd Sat thru Tue morn, then conditions
lowering to MVFR Tue aftn and then IFR Tue ngt in shwrs/rn. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No definitive hdln conditions xpcted thru
these ptns of the fcst, although winds and seas will build to
just below SCA criteria Tue aftn/ngt ahead of low pres from the
great lks - a pd we will cont to monitor as we get closer in
time. Went with about 80 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv
hts with predominate wv pds n the 6 to 8 sec range.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda
Marine...Duda/VJN