028 
FXUS64 KFWD 070451
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019


.AVIATION...
/06 TAFs/

Concerns -- Decreasing TSRA activity within Bonham and Cedar Creek
arrival gates. Brief periods of MVFR possible after daybreak. 
Otherwise...VFR/north flow.

A surface low over southeast Oklahoma will continue to push off to
the east...bringing convective chances to an end across North
Texas...though a few TSRA will continue to impact the far eastern
reaches of the Bonham and Cedar Creek arrival gates for another
few hours. As the aforementioned surface low departs...moisture
will wrap around the backside of the surface low...bringing
increasing low and mid-level cloud cover by daybreak. The LAMP 
and NAM guidance both generally agree that MVFR cigs will be 
possible at some point during the 12-15Z timeframe. Right 
now...the exact timing still remains uncertain...but this is 
probably the most likely window. Additionally...the 00Z KFWD raob
showed that a substantial amount of dry air still remains in and 
immediately above the boundary layer. Because of these two 
factors...opted to go with TEMPO MVFR in the hours immediately 
after daybreak...but if timing and magnitude become more certain 
during the overnight...an upgrade to prevailing MVFR may be 
required.

Cigs should return to VFR by late morning...with increasing NWly
flow as the pressure gradient tightens between a ridge of high
pressure building over the Great Plains/Midwest...and a deepening
surface low over the Southeast. That said...sustained winds should
remain in the 10-15 KT range.

37

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 851 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/
00Z surface analysis revealed a surface low over southeast
Oklahoma, with a cold front extending southwest towards DFW, then
farther southwest roughly along the Balcones Escarpment. A few
showers and thunderstorms have managed to form along and ahead of
this cold front, with the most intense activity along and north of
I-30, east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. Instability
is somewhat limited, and will only decrease as the sun sets and
the boundary layer cools. The main hazards associated with
thunderstorm activity over North Texas will be gusty winds (a few
surface observation sites have already measured wind gusts in the
30-40 MPH range) and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

Thunderstorm activity should generally decrease through the
evening, with only chance PoPs being carried after 1:00 a.m. We
may still see some lingering showers northeast of Dallas beyond 1
a.m., but these showers should be very light.

Otherwise, look for partly cloudy skies with low temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 60s across our county warning area,
which is a few degrees below normal for early June. Updated
products have already been sent.

37

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/
/Tonight/
A slot of dry air moving in from the west has kept the 
weather quiet across North and Central Texas through the day. 
However, current satellite shows some agitated Cu fields and 
developing storms just northwest of the forecast area and this 
will likely be where most of the storm initiation will be over the
next couple of hours. These storms will track east/northeast 
through the evening as the upper low, currently across western 
Oklahoma, translates eastward. The atmosphere remains moderately 
unstable and a few storms will have a potential to become strong 
to marginally severe with downburst winds and small hail. 

A second area of interest is across the Texas Hill Country where 
more instability and moisture has resulted in a few strong/severe 
storms this afternoon. These storms will drift east/northeast 
through the early evening, but should weaken with the loss of 
surface heating. Therefore, the southern zones could also see a 
few strong to severe storms over the next few hours with the 
primary hazards being damaging winds and hail. 

Otherwise, tonight will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows
from the mid 60s across the north and west to the lower 70s in the
south.   

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/

/Friday through Thursday/

The upper low responsible for the unsettled weather this week will lift
toward the mid Mississippi Valley region Friday, leaving dry northwest
flow aloft and slightly cooler and drier air near the surface. The
only precipitation expected on Friday will be across the 
northeast zones where some moisture will wrap around the departing
system, resulting in a few showers/storms. Otherwise, it will be 
mostly sunny and seasonably warm Friday with highs in the 80s and 
lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. 

A brief warmup is expected Saturday due to an amplifying ridge extending
from Mexico to the Central Plains. Afternoon highs should have no
problem reaching the lower to middle 90s across most of the region
under abundant sunshine. Afternoon heat index values will likely 
approach the triple digits in many areas, but dewpoints should 
remain in the 60s, which should keep us below heat advisory 
criteria. It will still feel rather steamy with only a light north
to northeast wind. 

The upper ridge will slowly build toward the Desert Southwest Sunday, 
increasing northwest flow aloft and allowing a subtle return of 
low level moisture. Models continue to hint that some convection 
may move southeast from the High Plains during the day Sunday, 
warranting some low PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures Sunday will
remain above seasonal normals with highs generally in the lower 
and middle 90s and heat index values only slightly higher.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western states Sunday night 
through Tuesday while a longwave trough deepens over the eastern 
half of the country, keeping Texas in northwest flow aloft. Some 
low thunderstorm chances remain in place with the best chances 
across the western zones Sunday night/Monday when a weak cold 
front moves south across the region. The cold front will also keep
temperatures below seasonal normals Monday and Tuesday with highs
generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

The upper ridge will build back to the east Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing seasonably warm and generally rain free
weather the second half of the week. 

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  86  70  91  73 /  20  10   0   0   0 
Waco                70  89  68  93  72 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Paris               67  81  67  87  69 /  60  40   0   0   5 
Denton              66  85  67  90  70 /  20  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            67  83  67  89  70 /  30  20   0   0   5 
Dallas              70  87  71  92  74 /  30  10   0   0   0 
Terrell             68  85  69  90  70 /  40  20   0   0   5 
Corsicana           69  86  69  90  71 /  20  10   0   0   0 
Temple              69  90  68  93  72 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       66  86  66  91  70 /  10   5   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

37/66