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FXUS65 KABQ 061719 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1119 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Isolated convection is forecast to initiate over the
mountains later this afternoon and may move into the vicinity of
KAEG, KABQ, KSAF, KLVS and later at KTCC, with gusty/erratic winds
being the main impact.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer weather is still on tap for today through Saturday.
Highs climb above normal with Albuquerque and Roswell likely reaching
90F and 100F respectively Friday or Saturday. Afternoon storms will
be more isolated to the northern mountains today and Friday. Virga
showers and brief gusty winds may also be possible over the western
high terrain and middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. The drier
and warmer weather pattern comes to and end quickly Saturday night
into Sunday as a potent backdoor cold front swings through eastern
New Mexico. Highs fall back below normal as afternoon showers and 
storms return favoring the central mountain chain eastward. Scattered
storms could reach into western New Mexico Monday before retreating 
east by the middle of next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...The upper low has shifted into the TX/OK Panhandles this
morning as a ridge is building into NM from the west. Enough remnant
moisture will be left behind to allow scattered storms to develop
over the northern high terrain this afternoon. Much drier and warmer
conditions move into the state starting today, with dewpoint
depressions rising to the 40-50F range across western and central
portions of the state. This, combined with enough mid-level moisture
could allow for some virga showers over the continental divide 
moving into the middle RGV by the late afternoon/evening. Some could 
produce periods of gusty winds. 

Friday-Saturday...The ridge moves squarely over NM Friday with highs
above normal. ABQ and Roswell will have a shot at reaching 90F and
100F for the first time this year, with Saturday being the best shot
of the forecast period. Scattered storms are likely to develop over
the Sangre's before shifting over the northeastern plains Friday
evening. Coverage will likely be greater if the flow aloft is more
NW than W. The ridge breaks down a bit Saturday, replaced with a 
more zonal flow setting up downslope westerlies through the eastern 
half of the state. This will raise temperatures 5-10F above normal 
across the east Saturday.

Long Range...The weather pattern shifts cooler and wetter again
Saturday night through Monday as a potent backdoor cold front surges
through eastern NM. This front will likely surge through the central
mountain chain Sunday night bringing strong gap winds. Daytime highs
fall back below normal with increased moisture behind the front. The
added moisture, coupled with modest westerly flow aloft will allow
for daily rounds of showers and storms favoring the central mountain
chain eastward Sunday and Monday. Scattered storms are likely over 
the western high terrain Monday depending on how far the backdoor 
front progresses, but the recent model trend has been further and 
further west with recent runs. 

24/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated, or sub-critical, fire weather conditions may develop Fri 
afternoon in the Upper Gila and again on Sat afternoon to include 
the northeast highlands. Limiting factors will be the 20-foot wind 
speeds and extended green-up conditions. High temps will finally 
warm to near or above normal for Fri and Sat with moderate to high 
Haines for all areas.

A backdoor cold front is scheduled to invade the eastern plains of 
NM Sat night through Sun. Strong gap winds are likely Sunday night, 
pushing low-level moisture toward the Continental Divide. There are 
model differences in frontal timing and risk for precip, but pattern 
recognition suggests higher humidities, cooler temps and increasing 
t-storm coverage will be favored, especially in central/eastern NM. 
There may be a shift eastward in moisture and precip chances for the 
middle and latter part of next week as the westerlies increase, but 
confidence is low at this time. DPorter

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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