014 
FXUS63 KFGF 061137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

The leftover showers near Detroit Lakes have dissipated. Frontal
system/wind shift line moving slowly thru the Red River valley at
11z. Satellite shows a few mid or high clouds east and south and
upstream in southern Manitoba with clear sky otherwise. See no
reason to deviate from the dry/sunny fcst today. Will need to
continue to watch progression of front any psbl late day
convection near the far SE fcst area.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Sfc low pressure is near Grand Forks/Hallock at 08z. Cold front
(well more of a wind shift) is located southwest to just west of
Jamestown. Scattered t-storms that out ran the cold front turning
into showers and weakening with leftover around Detroit Lakes MN.
Skies generally clear other than mid clouds around the showers
near DTL. For today....front will progress east and is expected to
lie from west of Duluth to about Brainerd to Benson MN. Scat
t-storms will likely form near the front, esp over NE MN. Timing
of front via HRRR would indicate chc of any convection is just
south/east of the fcst area. So will keep a dry fcst. High
pressure builds over the area today with light winds and plenty of
sun. Any cooling at 925/850 is very brief and by 18z 925/850 mb
rise to above levels on Wed. Therefore look for highs 2-4 degrees
higher.  

Skies mainly clear tonight and it will be mild as south winds
start to pick up.  

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Hot on Friday and windy with south winds at 925 mph 30 kt and 850
mb winds 35-40 kts in the RRV and NE ND. Thermal ridge moves into
E ND in the aftn as well. So do expect widespread lower 90s E ND
and the RRV with 80s east. Convective development looks to
initiate west of the fcst area...with latest NAM and a few others
showing not much forming in western or central ND til after
00z/03z. But to account for some risk very late Friday afternoon
will have low pop in NW corner. Main emphasis for Friday
evening/night t-storms will be west of the fcst area with far NW
fcst area getting brushed overnight Fri night.  

00Z Sat - 12Z Sun

Short waves are expected to move northeast through the southwest 
flow aloft. Main upper trough over ALTA will rotate into northern 
MAN by Sun morning. Main cold front will essentially move across 
the Red River Valley on Sat. 

700 theta-e ridge will be located just west of the forecast area at 
00Z Sat. Theta-e ridge will shift east through the period and exit 
the southeast zones Sat night. Severe weather will be possible 
mainly for Friday night over the DVL basin and again Sat 
afternoon and evening. SPC has slight risk for Fri night and a 
marginal risk for Sat afternoon/Sat night. 

Sun - Wed

Main upper level trough over central Canada will slowly shift east 
through the period and maintain northwest flow aloft across the 
forecast area. Cooler weather is expected through the period with 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

VFR thru the day. Winds mainly northwest to north RRV/DVL today
then turning southeast later tonight. TVF/BJI south turning west
then northwest as the day progresses. Wind speeds 10 kts or less
anticipated.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Riddle