875 
FXUS65 KABQ 052106
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure has shifted into New Mexico today, bringing
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms to portions of the state. 
Storm coverage will shift further east by this evening, but the 
localized flash flooding threat will still be there. Drier, warmer 
conditions return for the end of the week, before a back door cold 
front will bring temperatures below normal for the beginning of next 
week. 

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&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low pressure system we've been talking about has
finally crossed into the northeastern part of the state. As a 
result, several slow moving showers and thunderstorms have shifted 
from the central portion of the state this afternoon to the eastern 
border. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms,
along with locally heavy rainfall and the increased chance for flash
flooding, especially over the Ute Park burn scar area. Our main 
forecast challenge for today is the transition between today's system
to a less active pattern towards the end of the work week.

With a building ridge and clear skies, many areas of the state will
reach near to slightly above normal temperatures for this time of 
year Friday and Saturday. Model guidance is possibly showing 
Albuquerque's first 90 degree temperatures of the year Friday, which 
is a shift from originally being Saturday. It's also possible for 
Roswell to reach their first 100 degree temperature by Saturday. By 
Saturday evening, a backdoor cold front will bring below normal 
temperatures to much of the state and an active weather both Sunday
and Monday.

By mid-week next week, models are showing a drying and warming trend
as our semi-permanent sub-tropical summer high pressure finally 
shows signs of developing over the Baja Peninsula..

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting showers and storms continue across the area today as the 
upper low moves east over the state. Soaking rains favor the eastern 
plains today, but that mostly comes to an end tomorrow as the upper 
low moves further away and is replaced with a shortwave ridge. Look 
for a well defined warming/drying trend through Saturday, with 
daytime temperatures rising to at or slightly above normal by 
Friday. The threat for large fire growth through Saturday will 
remain low to non-existent, mostly because of greenup and recent 
moisture, but we'll also be lacking the wind necessary to produce 
critical fire weather conditions.

A strong backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday 
night then push west to at least the Continental Divide on Sunday, 
leading to a downtrend in daytime temperatures and replenishing 
moisture and leading to an uptick in wetting showers and storms 
Sunday night through at least Tuesday.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except in/near 
showers and storms through early evening when short-lived MVFR 
conditions are possible. TAF sites most likely to be impacted by 
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening are KROW, KTCC, KSAF and KLVS...
and generally in that order in terms of forecast confidence.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  86  53  87 /  20   5   5   0 
Dulce...........................  40  76  43  79 /  40  20  10   5 
Cuba............................  45  78  51  81 /  30  10  10   5 
Gallup..........................  43  83  44  83 /  10   5   5   0 
El Morro........................  41  80  44  81 /  20   5   5   0 
Grants..........................  41  82  45  84 /  10  10  10   5 
Quemado.........................  47  81  49  83 /  20   5   0   0 
Glenwood........................  52  87  54  88 /  20   5   0   0 
Chama...........................  38  69  41  73 /  40  60  20  10 
Los Alamos......................  51  75  57  79 /  30  30  20  20 
Pecos...........................  46  73  50  79 /  30  30  20  10 
Cerro/Questa....................  40  71  45  76 /  50  50  30  20 
Red River.......................  35  61  40  67 /  50  70  30  30 
Angel Fire......................  31  66  34  72 /  50  70  30  40 
Taos............................  38  75  42  80 /  40  40  20  20 
Mora............................  40  70  43  77 /  40  50  20  50 
Espanola........................  47  81  53  84 /  20  20  20  20 
Santa Fe........................  49  75  55  80 /  30  20  20  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  47  79  52  84 /  20  10  10  10 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  83  61  87 /  20   5   5   5 
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  84  60  89 /  10   5   5   0 
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  85  58  90 /  10   5   5   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  84  59  88 /  10   5   5   5 
Los Lunas.......................  50  86  54  90 /  10   5   5   5 
Rio Rancho......................  54  84  59  88 /  20   5   5   5 
Socorro.........................  54  89  60  94 /  10   5   5   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  78  54  81 /  20   5   5   5 
Tijeras.........................  48  81  53  85 /  20   5   5   5 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  81  46  85 /  20  10   5   5 
Clines Corners..................  47  76  51  81 /  30  10  10   5 
Gran Quivira....................  49  81  53  86 /  20   5   5   5 
Carrizozo.......................  54  84  59  89 /  20   5   5   0 
Ruidoso.........................  47  76  51  81 /  20  10   5   5 
Capulin.........................  45  73  47  79 /  60  50  20  40 
Raton...........................  43  77  45  83 /  50  40  20  40 
Springer........................  44  77  46  82 /  40  40  20  30 
Las Vegas.......................  43  73  46  81 /  40  40  20  20 
Clayton.........................  52  77  52  82 /  60  40  10  30 
Roy.............................  49  76  53  82 /  50  40  20  30 
Conchas.........................  55  84  57  92 /  40  20  10  10 
Santa Rosa......................  53  83  56  91 /  30  10   5   5 
Tucumcari.......................  56  84  57  92 /  40  20   5   5 
Clovis..........................  55  81  57  89 /  50  20   5   5 
Portales........................  56  83  58  91 /  40  10   0   5 
Fort Sumner.....................  55  84  59  92 /  30  10   5   5 
Roswell.........................  59  90  63  97 /  10   5   0   0 
Picacho.........................  55  83  58  90 /  20  10   5   5 
Elk.............................  53  79  55  87 /  20  10   5  10 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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