594 
FXUS63 KAPX 051952
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...Slowly Decreasing Clouds with Some Fog...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Any fog formation.  

.Tonight...Low pressure continues to move away to our east 
this evening with weak high pressure building in overnight. Drier 
air advecting in from the north is expected to clear skies from 
northwest to southeast late this afternoon and this evening. However, 
lingering low level moisture could lead to fog formation. Went with 
patchy fog formation for now but the evening shift will have to keep 
tabs on current trends to see if the fog becomes more widespread 
(could even end up being locally dense).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...Quiet and increasingly mild weather to end the week...

High impact weather potential: None 

Pattern synopsis: Sharp mid level ridge axis expected to build 
overhead as we head into the weekend, keeping all active weather to 
our north and south. Combine that with sprawling surface high, and a 
well deserved break in the active and wet weather is on its way. 

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Minimal...with primary focus 
on temperature and cloud trends.

Details: Not much to really talk about as surface high pressure 
builds overhead to end the work week, only to be followed by its mid 
level likeness into the weekend. Both guidance derived soundings and 
cross section analysis shows plenty of dry air, suggesting mostly 
sunny/clear skies right through Saturday. Overhead airmass will 
continue to modify (owning in large part to all that sunshine), 
allowing high temperatures to increase a bit each day, with highs by 
Friday and Saturday reaching well up into the 70s, and even a few 
lower 80s...especially by Saturday. Of course, expect readings to be 
at least a few degrees cooler near the big waters. Given dry air and 
those clear skies, would expect a decent nocturnal temperature 
response each night, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

High impact weather potential: Minimal

Conditions continue to look mild and mostly dry to end the weekend 
as upper level ridge maintains control. Guidance remains rather 
steadfast in driving digging shortwave trough and its attendant cold 
front into the region early next week, bringing the threat for a few 
showers along with them. Trends suggest troughing becoming 
increasingly estabilished as we head through the middle of next 
week, returning temperatures to below normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Very challenging low cloud and visibility forecast. Low pressure
will move away to the east of the region this evening with weak
high pressure building in from the north tonight into Thursday.
There is a large area of low cloud cover behind the departing low
with cigs varying from lifr to mvfr. Drier air from the north
should slowly erode the low cloud deck through this evening. In
the meantime, cigs will unfortunately be tough to call. Winds will
remain light for the most part, with lake breezes expected to
develop late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon.
Visibility could lower for a bit at times this afternoon before
the drier air advects in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

A fairly loose pressure gradient over nrn Michigan through 
at least the remaining work week with no expected advisory needs. 
Weak low pressure moves away from the region this evening with high 
pressure building in overnight into Thursday. Will have to be aware 
of the possibility of fog formation in some areas tonight (went 
patchy for now). A long period of no precipitation is then expected 
as weak high pressure lingers in the Great Lakes through the start 
of the weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...AS