088 
FXUS62 KMHX 042344
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
744 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide offshore tonight but remain in control
through Wednesday. A cold front will approach the area from the
north late this week, passing through eastern NC Friday night. 
High pressure will extend into the region from the northeast 
Sunday and Monday as the front remains stalled near or just to 
the south of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
As of 730 PM Tue...1022 mb high is shifting offshore this
evening with winds now predominantly S/SE across the region.
Cumulus is dissipating with thin high cirrus approaching from 
the west, and still expect mostly clear conditions late tonight 
with clouds increasing early Wed morning. Temps look on track 
with lows expected in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... 
As of 240 PM Tue...High pressure will extend over the area from
offshore, as inland troughing and more typical summertime 
pattern re-establishes itself. Moisture will continue to 
increase across the area as dewpoints climb back into the 60s 
with low level southerly flow. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon and evening, 
with best chances inland and likely remaining dry along the 
coast. An isolated strong storm will be possible with MU CAPE 
values 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear around 25 kt. Low level 
thickness values and southerly flow support highs in the mid to 
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Increasing moisture and mid-level energy 
approaching from the west will lead to a wetter and more 
unsettled weather pattern for much of the extended period. 

Initially, a mid level shortwave will move across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday with a front slowly approaching
from the northwest bringing a good chance of showers and 
thunderstorms across the region. The front is progged to drop
into the area Friday night and and remain quasi-stationary near
or just south of the area through early next week. The upper
level pattern will be very slow moving over the weekend into
early next week as a Rex block sets up over the central CONUS
with a mid-level cut off low moving across the lower 
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the low, several areas of mid-
level energy will be drawn east toward the eastern Carolinas as 
a diffluent upper-level flow sets up. Additionally, deep 
moisture will be drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico with 
precipitable water values close to 2 inches likely from Thursday 
through the weekend and dewpoints returning to the 70s. Will 
have at least high chance of occasional likely PoPs throughout 
the extended with widespread QPF totals of 1-2 inches probable 
over the CWA during this time frame. High temperatures will be
mainly in the 80s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/... 
As of 745 PM Tue...VFR conditions expected to dominate through 
the period tonight with mostly clear skies expected and light S 
winds. Gusty conditions Wednesday with peak gusts up to 20 knots
possible especially for the coastal plain. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon with the best 
chances for PGV and ISO, thus have included VCTS this cycle.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
As of 4 PM Tuesday...A very slow moving upper level pattern will
become established across the area through the long term with a
front becoming stalled near or just south of the area which will
keep unsettled weather across rtes through the long term.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected 
through the period bringing period of sub-VFR conditions and
with the added moisture could see patchy late night/early
morning fog or stratus as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/... 
As of 240 PM Tue...Latest obs show E/SE winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-3 ft. High pressure centered over the waters this afternoon 
will gradually shift offshore tonight and extend over the waters
into Wednesday. A more typical summertime pattern returns for 
Wed. S/SE winds 5-15 kt become S 10-15 kt late tonight and early
Wed. Gradient tightens Wed, with southerly winds increasing to 
15-25 kt, strongest north of Hatteras. Will go ahead with a SCA 
for the northern waters for frequent gusts to 25 kt. Might be 
close for the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds late Wed afternoon 
and evening, but will hold off at this time. Seas 2-3 ft through
early Wed, building to 2-4 ft Wed afternoon. 

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
As of 4 PM Tuesday...High pres offshore and front to the N will
produce S to SW winds around 15 to 25 kts Wed night into Thu
with seas around 3 to 5 ft. The front will sag into the area 
later Fri then stall near or just S of srn tier Sat. Winds will 
diminish Fri with dir becoming onshore nrn tier and mainly SSW 
srn tier. With the front likely S of region Sat expect E to NE 5
to 15 kts, becoming E to SE around 10 to 15 kts Sun. Seas will 
subside to mostly 2 to 3 feet Fri and Sat with again poss some 4
footers outer wtrs, then build to 3 to 5 ft Sun.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT 
     Thursday night for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday 
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday 
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT 
     Thursday night for AMZ152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/SK
AVIATION...RF/SK/MS
MARINE...RF/SK/CQD