702 
FXUS61 KBGM 042236
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving across the lakes will bring rain showers 
to NY and PA tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible 
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return to the 
region beginning Thursday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

With the early evening update, we decreased the rain chances 
for most locations south of the NY Thruway for the mid and late 
evening based on trends from the latest Hi-res NAM and HRRR 
model runs. Showers are still expected to continue through the 
evening further north while also reaching portions of the 
Southern Catskills. Showers have also resulted in rain-cooled 
air early this evening so some adjustments were made with the 
temperatures for the next couple of hours. 

245 PM update...

A weak frontal system across Northern NY will keep the threat
for showers over the region overnight, especially north of the 
NY/PA border. Temperatures will fall into the middle-50s.

Instability will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage during the afternoon hours, with a few storms producing
heavy downpours per 1.50 inch PWATs and 500 j/kg CAPEs. It will
be milder with temperatures climbing into the middle and upper-
70s.

Thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday night with the
precipitation finishing the night as mainly rain showers.
Temperatures will fall to around 60 degrees. In total, storm
total rainfall of 0.60 to 0.90 inches is forecast across the
region.

1045 AM update..

A few returns are showing up on radar to the north this morning,
but it doesn't appear the precipitation is reaching the ground
yet. 

Showers will increase in activity this afternoon across the
Finger Lakes and Western Mohawk Valley, then spread into the
Twin Tiers.

We adjusted today's temperatures upward over the Western Mohawk
Valley where reading were within a few degrees of the projected
maxes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday...Mid level short wave moves through the region during
the morning hours as a surface cold front continues moving
through the southeast forecast area. The GFS/ECMWF are faster
with the surface boundary than the NAM and generally followed.
Will continue with chance POPs during the morning and just 
slight chance by afternoon primarily east of I81. Will continue
to mention thunder only in the far southeast where some 
destabilzation may occur before frontal passage. 

Thursday night/Friday...A dry period with northwest cyclonic
flow aloft but high pressure at the surface. Lows Thursday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Friday in the 70s
under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The beginning part of the extended forecast starts fairly quiet
with surface high pressure in the vicinity and upper level 
ridging. Friday night through Sunday will advertise dry weather
with near normal temperatures. Both the GFS/ECMWF are now dry
for Sunday as upper level ridge holds tuff.

Monday through Tuesday will carry chance POPs for showers and
thunderstorms as moisture from an upper level system in the
Tennessee Valley is entrained in a northern stream wave and 
associated surface cold front. The best chance for precipitation
will be on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon and tonight 
with the exception of KRME, where rain showers will reduce 
ceilings to between 1500 and 2500 feet and visibilities to 4 to 
6 SM.

Deeper moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will cause
MVFR ceilings by Wednesday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are 
possible late in the day.

Outlook... 

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday... VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP