469 
FXUS64 KLUB 032337 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites with the main
uncertainty once again being possibility of strong thunderstorms
at KLBB and KPVW. Storms are already ongoing across eastern New
Mexico and these should continue to push towards KLBB/KPVW through
the evening. However, many computer models dissipate the storms
after sunset so confidence is low on the timing if storms are able
to hold together. Outside of the window for storms, expect VFR
conditions to continue into tomorrow.

Only other issue would be potential for MVFR ceilings towards
sunrise Tuesday but confidence is too low to include at this time.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
The setup today is looking similar to the last couple of days with
modest and moist southerly low level flow that will likely back a
bit with sunset ahead of increasing convection on the high terrain
of central New Mexico. Upper flow will want to steer convection to
the northeast but as convection congeals movement should begin to
turn into the south/southeast low level flow. This will favor
storms getting into the forecast area again tonight, probably
favoring the southwestern third to half of the forecast area.

The pattern begins to shift Tuesday as the upper trough that has
been parked over the west coast and has played a role in how
convective evolution has played out the last several days begins
to open up and move eastward. Increasing ascent ahead of the low
as it moves over western New Mexico Tuesday night should bring
more widespread thunderstorms to most if not all of the forecast
area. Pretty good precip chances should continue into Thursday,
especially for the northern half of the area as the closed low
moves across the Panhandle/South Plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday. 

Things begin to dry out and warm up Friday through the weekend as
upper level ridging shifts westward to the western Gulf of Mexico
and then onshore over central Mexico, aplifying over the southern
Plains as it does so. A sharp increase in heights and thicknesses
point to above normal temperatures. How much above will depend
upon 1) how much the low level flow if able to veer and in turn
dry the low levels out and 2) the timing of a cold front through
the forecast area in the Sunday/Sunday evening time frame. It is
at this point of the forecast that models begin to diverge enough
to lower confidence. Will stick with model blend at this point in
the cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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