National Weather Service Raw Text Product

297 
FXUS64 KMOB 021201
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Patchy areas of fog will burn off within the next 
hour. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and 
thunderstorms generally confined southward over Gulf waters. Winds
are expected to be light and variable this morning but favoring a
northwest to northerly direction and then transitioning to a 
light south to southwesterly wind this afternoon. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Relatively clear skies 
overnight has led to the development of some radiational fog. The 
fog is generally over our coastal counties where the higher 
rainfalls occurred yesterday afternoon and inland along low lying 
areas and rivers. Fog should dissipate soon after sunrise. The 
weak and diffuse surface boundary which previously pushed 
southward toward the Gulf will continue to linger near the coast, 
but convection today is expected to remain primarily over the 
marine area. The ridge aloft is projected to build today creating 
large scale subsidence which should inhibit convection. Model 
soundings forecast the development of a mid-level subsidence 
inversion capable of capping convection. However, the subsidence 
will be weaker along the coast and the light offshore flow this 
morning will reverse this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and
pushes inland creating some low-level lift. A couple of the 
convective allowing models are projecting some isolated convection
near and along the coast. Cannot completely rule out the 
potential for a shower or two but kept PoPs low, around 10 
percent, as any development will likely be isolated and short 
lived. Temperatures will remain considerably warmer than normal 
with highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and low 90s along the 
coast. Tonight's forecasted low temperatures fall into the upper 
60s to low 70s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast. /08

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...An upper ridge will
build over the area through Tuesday. This will maintain dry and
hot conditions. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 
90s except for lower 90s near the coast. Lows each night will be 
mainly near 70 inland ranging to the mid 70s at the coast. /13

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper ridge will
shift eastward Wednesday into Thursday as an upper trough
approaches from the west. The weakening upper ridge combined with
increasing deep layer moisture and the approaching trough will
allow for increasing chances of rain through the second half of
the week. Increasing coverages of clouds and associated rain 
chances will help moderate temps slightly as well. /13

MARINE...Onshore winds will occur each afternoon through midweek 
with the development of the sea breeze, followed by light offshore 
winds each night. A persistent onshore flow then develops Wednesday 
and prevails through the remainder of the week. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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