National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTOP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2019-06-02 08:50 UTC
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913 FXUS63 KTOP 020850 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Sfc frontal boundary this morning is hovering across southern Kansas with the mid level perturbation lifting across Oklahoma. A weak MCV has resulted in residual showers and isolated thunder festering across central Kansas overnight. Latest runs from the HRRR and RAP translates this activity into Dickinson, Ottawa and Lyon counties after 09Z through sunrise. Thereafter, partly sunny skies on tap for the afternoon with cool high pressure in control with highs in the upper 70s. Upper ridge within the mean northwest flow aloft begins to break down late tonight as an mid level wave comes off the southern Rockies. Moisture profiles suggest heaviest precip to occur further south into Oklahoma overnight, with mostly showers and isolated thunder spreading over the entire CWA towards Monday. QPF amounts are generally light and less than half of an inch through early afternoon. Could see a few heavier thunderstorms towards the late afternoon as the front lifts northward into the CWA. Mid level lapse rates are not impressive, but increasing instability with ample effective shear may produce a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail. Main uncertainties for the stronger storms center around morning convection clearing out, allowing more destabilization in the boundary layer. In addition, placement for residual outflow boundaries may dictate where thunderstorms redevelop in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 Transitioning into the extended period, a return to an active weather pattern is expected Monday night through next weekend. By Monday night the region will remain beneath a stout midlevel ridge as a trough axis slowly progresses eastward across the desert southwest. Gradual deepening of the lee surface trough across the High Plains will foster a modest low-level mass response throughout the Plains. Guidance continues to diverge with regards to the depth of moisture across the forecast area by Monday night. This will play a major factor whether elevated thunderstorms can develop late Monday night/Tuesday morning. The best potential for thunderstorm development looks to be across far eastern KS where the best theta-e advection and isentropic upglide should reside. At this point, the threat for severe storms appears low as effective shear values are <20 kts. By Tuesday afternoon, lee troughing will continue to deepen with continued moisture advection into the area -- dew points are progged to exceed 70 by Tuesday afternoon. The moist boundary layer beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will contribute to MLCAPE values >=3000 J/kg. A subtle H5 speed max ~35 kts could allow for thunderstorm development along the surface trough, generally across northern KS. A few organized updrafts are possible with 25-30 kts of effective shear, which could foster a large hail and damaging wind threat. The active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend as the midlevel trough slowly pushes east. This will result in rain chances each day next week into next week. Given the northward displacement of the main midlevel jet, overall severe chances appear low through next week. Multiple rounds of rain could worsen the ongoing river flooding across the area. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds shifting from northwest to east by Sunday morning. There is the potential for a few isolated showers and storms to develop through the day Sunday, however better chances look to remain south of the TAF sites so have kept the TAFs dry. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ011. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prieto LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Hennecke