AFOS product AFDTOP
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2019-06-02 08:50 UTC

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913 
FXUS63 KTOP 020850
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
350 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) 
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Sfc frontal boundary this morning is hovering across southern Kansas 
with the mid level perturbation lifting across Oklahoma. A weak MCV 
has resulted in residual showers and isolated thunder festering 
across central Kansas overnight. Latest runs from the HRRR and RAP 
translates this activity into Dickinson, Ottawa and Lyon counties 
after 09Z through sunrise. Thereafter, partly sunny skies on tap for 
the afternoon with cool high pressure in control with highs in the 
upper 70s. 

Upper ridge within the mean northwest flow aloft begins to break 
down late tonight as an mid level wave comes off the southern 
Rockies. Moisture profiles suggest heaviest precip to occur further 
south into Oklahoma overnight, with mostly showers and isolated 
thunder spreading over the entire CWA towards Monday. QPF amounts 
are generally light and less than half of an inch through early 
afternoon. Could see a few heavier thunderstorms towards the late 
afternoon as the front lifts northward into the CWA. Mid level lapse 
rates are not impressive, but increasing instability with ample 
effective shear may produce a few stronger storms capable of gusty 
winds and small hail. Main uncertainties for the stronger storms 
center around morning convection clearing out, allowing more 
destabilization in the boundary layer. In addition, placement for 
residual outflow boundaries may dictate where thunderstorms 
redevelop in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, a return to an active weather 
pattern is expected Monday night through next weekend. 

By Monday night the region will remain beneath a stout midlevel 
ridge as a trough axis slowly progresses eastward across the desert 
southwest. Gradual deepening of the lee surface trough across the 
High Plains will foster a modest low-level mass response throughout 
the Plains. Guidance continues to diverge with regards to the depth 
of moisture across the forecast area by Monday night. This will play 
a major factor whether elevated thunderstorms can develop late 
Monday night/Tuesday morning. The best potential for thunderstorm 
development looks to be across far eastern KS where the best theta-e 
advection and isentropic upglide should reside. At this point, the 
threat for severe storms appears low as effective shear values are 
<20 kts. By Tuesday afternoon, lee troughing will continue to deepen 
with continued moisture advection into the area -- dew points are 
progged to exceed 70 by Tuesday afternoon. The moist boundary layer 
beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will contribute to MLCAPE 
values >=3000 J/kg. A subtle H5 speed max ~35 kts could allow for 
thunderstorm development along the surface trough, generally across 
northern KS. A few organized updrafts are possible with 25-30 kts of 
effective shear, which could foster a large hail and damaging wind 
threat.  

The active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend as 
the midlevel trough slowly pushes east. This will result in rain 
chances each day next week into next week. Given the northward 
displacement of the main midlevel jet, overall severe chances appear 
low through next week. Multiple rounds of rain could worsen the 
ongoing river flooding across the area. Otherwise, temperatures look 
to remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period 
with winds shifting from northwest to east by Sunday morning.
There is the potential for a few isolated showers and storms to
develop through the day Sunday, however better chances look to
remain south of the TAF sites so have kept the TAFs dry.  


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke