National Weather Service Raw Text Product

967 
FXUS61 KBGM 020007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
807 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal boundary and associated low pressure systems will
bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. High pressure will build into the region briefly on 
Tuesday before the next frontal system moves into the region on 
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
800 PM Update...Made adjustments to try and capture the trends
of cold pool induced convective activity moving through the
Southern Tier and NEPA with isolated TSRA elsewhere plus the
stratiform rain and additional development expected as the upper
trof digs toward NY. Highest chances for rain will be along and
south of the NYPA border with passing and weakening stratiform
rain over central NY. Overnight should see a decreasing trend in
precipitation.

Previous discussion...
Tonight: Warm and humid air over the region late this afternoon
will lead to the development of a few clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms. Right now the most likely outcome is for these 
storms to develop in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early 
this evening then move southeastward into NE PA. Model soundings
do show some instability coupled with marginally high PW 
values. A lack of shear is present though is expected to limit 
any strong to severe storm threat. Gusty winds and small hail 
are the main concern with any strong to severe storms. Model 
soundings also show instability lingering along with a tall 
skinny CAPE profile. However, storm motions and PW values just 
over an inch should prevent any widespread flash flooding 
tonight. Still, a few storms as shown on the Hi- res NAM have 
the potential to drop local amounts of 1-2 inches in NE PA and 
create another round of localized flooding issues. 

A break is expected overnight in the showers before a cold frontal 
boundary moves into western NY by sunrise with additional showers. 
Lows tonight will stay muggy due to clouds and showers only falling 
to around 60. 

Sunday and Sunday night: 

A cold front will move through the region during the day. A similar 
environment will be in place to what is going on tonight with a 
modest amount of instability and lack of shear.  As instability 
grows by the late morning and afternoon thunderstorms will develop 
as well along with the showers along and just ahead of the cold 
front. However, the cold front should be near I-81 at that time. 
With the instability, some storms may become strong to severe with 
gusty winds east of I-81 but the lack of shear should keep the 
severe threat more limited. The main concern looks to be from heavy 
downpours though and localized flooding issues in areas that have 
seen repeated rounds of rainfall in the last week. High temperatures 
are only expected to rebound into the 70's due to clouds and showers. 

Showers will come to an end after the cold frontal passage in the 
afternoon hours with some showers and thunderstorms lingering into 
the evening across NE PA and the Southern Catskills. Clear skies and 
lighter winds with a cool airmass moving in tonight will lead to 
temperatures falling into the 40's tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM Update...A high amplitude trof will extend from eastern QC 
into the Northeast CONUS on Monday with cyclonic NW flow across 
central NY and northern PA. Deepest moisture is noted mainly over 
northern sections of our forecast area with a drier and capped 
atmosphere further south. A lobe of vorticity swings through and 
will force the development of scattered showers within the unstable 
cold pool aloft. High pressure builds into the region Monday night 
with limited moisture aloft. This should result in clear skies and 
abnormally colder temperatures for early June. Have introduced 
patchy frost to the forecast with temperatures overnight dipping 
into the mid-upper 30s. Refinements over the next couple days will 
address the need for frost/freeze statements.

Tuesday will see a southwesterly return flow and a swath of warm and 
moist air advection which could trigger a few rain showers mainly in 
north central NY. Otherwise, moderating temperatures and increasing 
clouds to cover the rest of forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM Update...Blended the latest NBM guidance with our current 
forecast for this update as model trends have been fairly similar 
since early this morning.

For Tuesday night, the area will become entrenched within the warm 
sector south of the initial impulse of isentropic lift. Lift 
continues within a warm/moist advection regime associated with a low 
level jet core surging across western to northern NY. Light rain 
showers as per all 3 main medium range models reach northern and 
western NY with the rest of central NY and northeast PA mainly dry 
overnight.

Unsettled conditions spread across our area Wednesday-Thursday as a 
cold front approaches. Blended guidance didn't change much with 
uncertainty in timing and placement of any showers limiting rain 
opportunities to chance POPs. Suspicions are that we will have 
showers these two days, but confidence in areal coverage is rather 
low. 

Models continue to diverge from Thursday onward with ECMWF nosing 
high pressure further south into our region. GFS clears out the 
northern half of the area, but lifts a secondary wave over the 
boundary stalled to our south. This provides a continuation of rain 
chances over mainly NEPA and the southern Tier NY into Thursday 
night. EC and GEFS come more in line with a stronger surface high 
resulting in a dry Friday-Saturday while the GFS and GGEM back 
moisture into the area from the south. Blended guidance splits the 
middle here, but will tailor PoPs with more of a diurnal trend. 
Either way, PoPs not very high and we can refine with later
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected tonight despite rain from
high base ceilings, although brief thunderstorms in the vicnity
of KAVP may produce short term restrictions. High clouds 
overnight should prevent radiational cooling fog, but this will 
need to be watched for any unexpected clearing which would allow
fog. Cold front approaches tomorrow with scattered rain showers
and a few thunderstorms. Too soon to pin down CB at this time, 
but activity seems likely after 16Z.

Winds light and variable tonight away from thunderstorms
becoming west and northwest 10-20 and gusty 

Sunday night...Becoming VFR.

Monday... Mainly VFR, Cooler air moving in along with a few 
rain showers across the north. 

Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday and Thursday...Additional restrictions possible in 
showers and storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038-039-
     043-044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...JAB/MWG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MWG