847 
FXUS65 KBOU 241958
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
158 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019

An upper level trough can be seen on water vapor moving NNE out of
central Utah. Some height falls and lift associated with the upper
jet will bring isolated to scattered convection over the higher
terrain by the afternoon, mainly over the northern mountains where
better moisture exists. With the subsident side of the jet lifting
to the NE, winds have decreased over the higher terrain, however
some gusting up to 55 mph will still be possible into the early
evening hours over the higher passes. At lower elevations,
moderate westerly flow has helped to dry out the eastern plains
with mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures back closer to
seasonal normals. Some mid level clouds will move in by the
evening as the upper disturbance moves over, which will help to
keep overnight temperatures warming than the past few days. 

For Saturday, Colorado will continue to be in southwesterly flow
aloft as another trough over the West coast moves inland. Dry mid
level flow will push in keeping skies mostly sunny through most of
the day. Surface flow will mainly be from the SSE that will help
to usher in some weak moisture through the day. By the late 
afternoon there is a slight chance of some isolated convection 
over the central mountains, but most of the higher chances of 
convection lie further South and East. Temperatures will continue
to rebound with highs on the plains expected to be in the mid 
70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019

For Saturday night and Sunday, the next storm system will be 
dropping southward across California with a strong southwest flow 
aloft over Colorado. At the surface, increasing southeast winds 
will bring in a moist low level flow Saturday night which will 
increase low clouds and possible fog across portions of northeast 
plains of Colorado. Low confidence on how far west the low 
clouds/fog make but for now will keep the clouds/fog north and 
east of the Denver area. 

From late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, the upper low 
begins to move eastward into Nevada Utah with continued strong 
southwest flow aloft over Colorado. With strong southerly flow, 
temperatures will approach 80 degrees on the plains as 700mb 
temperatures rise to around +10c. Could see a potential dry line 
set up over the far northeast plains with a potential for severe 
storms with over 2000k/kg of available CAPE and sufficient shear 
profile for super cells. Best chances would be east and north of a
line from from Anton to Sterling. SPC also has most of far 
eastern Colorado under a slight chance for severe storms for 
Sunday afternoon/evening. 

On Monday, the Great Basin upper low will be lifting northeast 
across northwest Colorado and into Wyoming and Nebraska Monday 
evening with moderate QG upward forcing over our northern mountains.
 The European solution is further south and slower with the track
of the low (more across central Colorado) which would give much 
of the northern portions of our CWA better chances of showers and 
a few thunderstorms. 700mb temperatures drop to around 0C so 
certainly more snowfall can be expected over the mountains and 
higher foothills above 7500 feet or so. 

Tuesday will remain unsettled with continue cool conditions and lingering 
showers, especially over northeast Colorado if the European track
verifies.  There will be continued weak troughiness across much 
of the west through the week, so there will still be some moisture
and limited instability over Colorado for mainly isolated late 
day showers and storms. Temperatures will climb back towards
seasonal normals by late next week.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
mainly from the SSW with some variable gusting up to 22 kts 
through 23z. Winds will shift around to the West and then back to
the SSW for drainage after 09z. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Bowen