242 
FXUS65 KBOU 240957
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
357 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri May 24 3579

The flow aloft has become WSW behind the trough axis, with strong
winds over the top of the Front Range and mixing down into the
valleys and foothills. The winds are also starting to scour out
the cool moist air from Denver southward with warmer and dry air.
There are still some patches of fog and low clouds from Greeley
north to the Cheyenne Ridge but the winds are picking up there
too, so this should erode over the next few hours. There are also
still some light orographic snow showers over the mountains north
of I-70. These still have some moisture upstream feeding them, and
may not go away completely but transition into more thermally
driven showers and a few storms this afternoon, then finally go
away with the cooling this evening.

Bumped up winds a little and high temperatures around Denver a
couple of degrees as model soundings support low 70s and it should
be sunny, dry, and breezy. Otherwise only minor changes.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri May 24 3579

Warmer temperatures will continue through the weekend. A short
wave ridge will be over eastern CO on Saturday with a moderate
southwesterly flow aloft. The models show enough mid level
instability in the afternoon for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains. Not much expected across the
eastern plains until Saturday night. At that time, the models show
subtropical moisture advecting northward, on the west of side of a
broad ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. This
coupled with a weak disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow
enough will lead to a slight chance of thunderstorms along the
eastern border Saturday night. On Sunday, an upper level low will
drop down the west coast and be located over the central
California coast by 15z Sunday. Over Colorado, the flow aloft will
increase and become more southerly. The models again show the best
thunderstorm potential along the CO/KS border by 00z Monday, with
weaker and more isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and
along the northern border. SPC indicates a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms in this area Sunday afternoon, with a marginal risk
of a severe thunderstorm over the northeast and east central
plains. Southeasterly winds over the plains will allow for an
increase in low level moisture, with a developing dry line east of
a line from roughly Limon to Fort Morgan to New Raymer. Forecast 
boundary layer computed CAPEs east of this line range from 
1600-2200 j/kg by late Sunday afternoon. Monday through Tuesday,
the next upper trough will move out the Great Basin and across the
state. The models indicate a deepening closed low over central CA
by 00Z Monday. This closed low will be over southern Nevada by 
12z Monday, then weaken a bit as it lifts northeastward over CO by
12z Tuesday. Prior to this, the cwa will be under the left exit 
region of a strong upper level jet Monday afternoon and evening. 
The models show a 120 kt jet max stretching from the southwest 
corner of the state to the northeast corner by midday Monday. The 
strongest lift will be over the western and northern portions of 
the county warning area. Enhanced bands of precipitation may occur
Monday afternoon and Monday night on the north side of the 
jet stream. More snow for the mountains, with amounts highly 
dependent on where this jet max sets up. Would not be surprised to
at least see another Winter Weather highlight get hoisted 
especially for zones 31 and 33. By Tuesday, the jet stream shifts
east but then the trough axis itself moves across the area. Much 
cooler with more showers vs thunderstorms on Tuesday, with the mid
and upper level flow becoming northwesterly. By Tuesday night, 
the focus of precipitation may shift more to the northeast plains 
where wrap-around moisture may develop as the trough lifts into 
Nebraska. The middle of next week, may be warmer and a little 
drier but still unsettled. The models show another trough 
developing over California/Nevada. This would be the next 
potential precipitation producer for the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri May 24 3579

VFR through tonight, except patchy fog and low clouds between KGXY
and KCYS through about 14z. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad