180 
FXUS64 KFWD 231150 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

South flow with diurnal stratus.

Breezier surface winds have precluded a repeat of IFR conditions 
this morning. Even MVFR ceilings have struggled to prevail as a 
vigorous low-level jet is shearing the clouds, preventing them
from congealing into a solid deck. The 12Z package will begin with
MVFR even though occasional VFR pockets will still be possible.
The steadily warming boundary layer will lift the ceilings above
FL030 around midday. Gusts will gradually become more frequent and
of greater intensity, prevailing through the afternoon. Once
again, a stout inversion will delay full scattering until later in
the afternoon. A VFR interlude during the evening will be brought
to an end by an earlier onset of stratus.

Today's thunderstorms will be confined to West Texas and the 
Texas Panhandle. In-flight impacts this afternoon and evening will
be much further beyond the Bowie cornerpost.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

Texas remains between troughing in the West and ridging in the
East. Of the two, it will be the intensifying anticyclone in the
Southeast that will drive today's forecast. Our flow aloft will
back, and 500mb heights this afternoon will be 6-8 decameters 
higher than 24 hours previous. (In gridiron terms, that's 65 to 90
yards.) This will help strengthen the capping inversion that 
should effectively prevent moist, unstable surface parcels from 
escaping the boundary layer. The slim thunderstorm chances in the
northwest will be even slimmer today, and only silent PoPs less 
than 10 percent will be featured in the grids this afternoon/ 
evening. Once again today, the inversion will maintain mostly
cloudy skies well into the afternoon. Despite the increasing 
subsidence aloft, backing 850mb flow will cool temps near the top
of the boundary layer, and high temperatures may lose a degree or
two as a result. Otherwise, it will be a similarly warm and breezy
day. The clouds will eventually mix out, with another brief 
interlude this evening before the stratus returns again tonight.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019/
/Friday Onward/

The extended portion of the forecast will feature longwave
troughing over the western US with a building upper ridge axis
across the southeastern US. This will place the Southern Plains
within southwesterly flow aloft with a warm advection regime
prevailing through the next week. In general, our chances for
precipitation will remain low throughout this time period, with
perhaps a greater potential arriving around the middle of next
week. 

On Friday and over the weekend, a surface dryline will serve as
the western boundary of a mT airmass over North and Central 
Texas. The dryline is expected to remain positioned well to the 
west of the forecast area throughout this time frame as it serves
as a focus for convective initiation each afternoon/evening. In 
general, associated thunderstorm activity is also expected to 
remain west and north of the CWA with a tendency to weaken/ 
dissipate as it translates eastward, becoming removed from ascent 
while encountering increasing CIN. Have included some low PoPs 
across our far west/northwest on Friday night when convection may 
survive into these areas before rapidly deteriorating. Convection 
looks to be displaced even farther northwest over the weekend, and
will show a dry forecast for the time being. Otherwise, the only 
precipitation potential would be some sprinkles of rain with 
perhaps an isolated warm advection shower as moisture surges 
northward each day. After mild nights with lows around 70 and 
morning stratus intrusions, temperatures will rise quickly each 
afternoon in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. A southerly breeze of
15-25 mph will also occur each afternoon. 

Similar trends will continue into Monday with a dry start to the
week. However, the upper ridge across the southeast is expected to
break down and retreat slightly east or southeast, allowing
troughing to spread farther eastward. This could result in some
better shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast area
beginning as early as Tuesday, with chances continuing through
Thursday. During this time, modest ascent from passing shortwaves
along the northeast periphery of the upper ridge may occasionally
be sufficient to initiate storms within our moist and unstable 
airmass. Given the overall parameter space of shear and 
instability, at least a low-end potential for some strong or 
severe storms could exist. Guidance is suggesting a a late- 
season cold front could encroach on the area late Wednesday or 
Thursday, perhaps increasing convective chances as well. Overall, 
will maintain some broad low PoPs across the forecast area through
the midweek time frame. Highs may be a couple degrees cooler than
earlier in the forecast period, simply due to an increase in 
afternoon cloud cover and possible precipitation. 

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  74  89  72  90 /   5   5   5   5   0 
Waco                88  73  89  72  92 /  10   5   0   5   0 
Paris               87  71  87  69  87 /   5   0   0   5   0 
Denton              87  73  87  70  89 /   5   5   5   5   5 
McKinney            87  73  88  71  89 /   5   5   5   5   0 
Dallas              89  75  91  73  91 /   5   5   5   5   0 
Terrell             88  74  90  71  91 /   5   5   0   5   0 
Corsicana           88  74  89  71  90 /  10   5   0   5   0 
Temple              88  73  89  72  90 /  10   5   5   5   0 
Mineral Wells       87  73  87  69  88 /   5   5  10  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/26