815 
FXUS64 KMOB 170005
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
705 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/00Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 18.00z. A few very
isolate showers and thunderstorms will dissipate shortly after
dark. Friday will see more of the same, VFR under mostly clear
skies, but a few isolated showers and storms late afternoon and
early evening. Winds primarily light south around sunset this
evening and then light and varibale overnight, before becoming
light southeasterly during the day on Friday. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...A broad upper ridge of high
pressure stretching  from lower TX to the mid MS River valley 
this afternoon will shift east reaching the TN River valley and 
northern Gulf states by late Fri afternoon in response to a 
developing mid to upper trough tracking eastward from the western 
conus to the Rockies. Near the surface a broad surface ridge 
stretching from the north central gulf coast region to the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri leading to a better 
synopic wind flow from the south along the north central gulf 
coast and forecast area by Fri afternoon. With this pattern expect
better moisture return in the lower levels of the boundary layer 
by Fri continuing through the weekend resulting in more seasonal 
temps and humidities levels tonight through Fri afternoon. Similar
to today expect a better seabreeze circulation to form along the 
coast by early Fri afternoon advancing inland through early to mid
evening. Latest model guidance continues to show less coverage of
showers and thunderstorms during the day on Fri compared to 
previous runs due to limited moisture in the boundary layer, 
though with still an isolated shower or thunderstorm possibly 
forming mainly over the Butler/Wilcox Co. area by mid to late 
afternoon on Fri. Will continue with a slight chance for a shower 
or thunderstorm over northern and eastern sections of the forecast
area for the remainder of today also mainly along the advancing 
seabreeze shifting well inland combined with some weak forcing 
aloft due to a persistent shortwave trof that continues to weaken 
and dampen out over the region through Fri. 

Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal levels through 
Fri afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 60s 
for most inland areas and the upper 60s to near 70 along the 
immediate coast. Highs Fri will range from the upper 80s to lower 
90s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 80s along the 
immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A light south to 
southeast wind flow will occur through the period as a surface 
ridge of high pressure remains across the southeast states and 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with patchy late night fog possible
both Friday and Saturday nights. A weak upper level trough over 
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida will shift eastward 
over the Bahamas Friday night, and evolve into a weak upper closed
low over the weekend, while a weak upper ridge of high pressure 
over northeastern Mexico and the southern plains shifts eastward 
over the western gulf by late Friday night and stalls. Meanwhile,
a strong upper level trough will exit the Rockies and move over 
the Great Plains on Saturday, and then lift northeast over the 
midwest states on Sunday. A dry weather pattern now looks to 
persist through Saturday night, but as the base of the upper 
trough exiting the southern plains swings just northwest of the 
forecast area Sunday, precipitation chances will return to the 
forecast area with scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. The best coverage will occur over the western 
half of the forecast area.

Low temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will be 3 to 6 degrees
above normal, with mid to upper 60s inland areas and around 70
degrees along the beaches. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday
will be 2 to 5 degrees above normal, with mid 80s to lower 90s  
ranging from 85 to 90 degrees inland ares, with lower 80s along 
the beaches. /22

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A second weaker upper
trough advances over the region Monday, with scattered to numerous
convective coverage expected. Subsidence associated with a strong
building upper ridge looks to have a sufficient influence through
the remainder of the long term for another extended dry period. 
Highs will be primarily in the mid to upper 80s while overnight 
lows will be in the mid to upper 60s except for near 70/lower 70s 
at the coast. /22

MARINE...A better southerly wind flow with gradually building seas 
can be expected through early next week as a broad surface ridge of 
high pressure continues to build east over the western Atlantic and 
northeast Gulf. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms can be 
expected Sunday through early next week as a weakening upper level 
system approaches from the west. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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