211 
FXUS64 KFWD 112005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Showers and thunderstorms will be pushing out of North and 
Central Texas as the shortwave responsible for today's rain moves 
eastward. A gradual clearing trend is expected through the night 
leading to mostly clear skies along and west of US-281 by early 
Friday morning. This will allow for better radiational cooling to 
take place atop a saturated ground while surface high pressure 
slides across western portions of North and Central Texas. With 
decreasing wind speeds, the highest potential for areas of fog 
will be across the aformentioned area.

A mention of patchy fog will also be added to areas east of I-35
across Central Texas given the potential for skies clearing 
enough for fog development. The fog threat throughout North and
Central Texas will continue to be analyzed the rest of today, and
if it appears that the fog will be more dense than currently 
anticipated, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. 

Lows tonight will depend on amount of cloud cover remaining as the
system pulls away from the region. Temperatures in the upper 40s 
to lower 50s will be possible where clearing occurs while upper
50s will remain for those with remnant clouds. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Onward/

After a cool and damp Saturday, a more pleasant Sunday will
follow. Highs will rebound back into the mid and upper 70s with
clearing skies following any early morning fog or stratus.
Moisture will slosh back into West Texas as southeast winds return
ahead of an approaching upper low. Weak ascent above this 
moisture should result in scattered showers and storms late 
Sunday afternoon, but at this time, am not expecting this activity
to make it into our western zones, Overall, it should be a great 
afternoon and evening for any Mother's day activities across North
and Central Texas.

Monday should be mostly dry across the forecast area as the
moisture and lift remains generally west of the CWA. However, by 
late afternoon or evening, some activity may begin to creep into 
our western or southwestern zones. An MCS or MCV feature may move 
just south of our area Monday night, mostly through the Texas Hill
Country and into southeastern Texas. However, showers and storms 
associated with this system may affect some of our Central Texas 
counties heading into early Tuesday morning. The main forcing 
with the upper trough will overspread the area later on Tuesday, 
resulting in scattered showers and a few storms just about 
anywhere in the forecast area. Highest PoPs will generally be 
confined south of I-20 through the day, while there will be other 
areas that remain completely dry. With limited shear and 
instability, the potential for severe weather still looks low as 
has been advertised for the past few days. There will be a chance 
for some additional heavy rain, but its isolated nature should 
preclude a noteworthy flooding threat despite our saturated 
antecedent conditions. 

Any lingering activity from the upper trough should exit to the
east on Wednesday with shortwave ridging occurring in its wake. 
This will lead to warming and drying conditions through the end 
of the week. Highs should return to near or slightly above normal 
by Thursday with readings mostly in the mid 80s. By Friday, a deep
trough will take up residence over the Intermountain West which 
will persist into the weekend. This will be a decent setup for 
dryline convection, especially across the western half of Texas. 
It's possible that either a complex of storms moves into the area 
late Friday night or Saturday as convection congeals well to our 
west. Or, if no complex is present, the dryline may advance 
farther east on saturday resulting in thunderstorm development 
closer to the forecast area. We'll keep an eye on this potential 
as it draws closer in the coming days. 

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1256 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

A gradual improvement is expected across the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex TAF sites given dry air is beginning to filter in from
the northwest. As of 18Z, MVFR is ongoing at KAFW and KFTW with 
IFR at the other 3 sites. Within the next few hours, all sites 
should be MVFR. A few lingering showers will also move through 
North Texas, leading to a temporary reduction in visibility. The 
threat of thunder has significantly lowered for North Texas and 
shifted to the south and east. 

For Waco, continued showers and thunderstorms are expected for a
few more hours as the shortwave responsible for this unsettled
weather slowly moves to the east. IFR will remain in place until
the bulk of the rain has moved through. Once the rain comes to an
end, expect mainly MVFR conditions through the afternoon and VFR
this evening. 

Regarding the potential for fog development tonight across North
and Central Texas, it will be heavily dependent on just how much 
clearing will occur. Guidance is suggesting partial clearing will 
occur west of I-35 early Sunday morning. Given a general consensus
of this occurring, will continue to advertise decreased 
visibility around sunrise. Any fog will lift by mid-morning with 
VFR the rest of the day on Sunday. 

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  77  60  82  63 /   0   0   5   5  10 
Waco                55  77  57  80  61 /   0   0   5   5  20 
Paris               54  75  55  80  58 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Denton              52  76  57  82  60 /   0   0   5   5  10 
McKinney            54  76  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Dallas              56  78  62  82  64 /   0   0   5   5  10 
Terrell             55  76  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Corsicana           57  76  58  80  61 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Temple              55  77  57  80  60 /   0   0   5  10  30 
Mineral Wells       52  77  55  79  59 /   0   0  10  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/26