442 
FXUS64 KFWD 090247 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
947 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019


.UPDATE...
A few changes were made to the forecast, but in general, the
previous package is in good shape. 

After an active day weather wise...we will have a brief respite
tonight from widespread rainfall. However, there are two areas 
that we are watching for a rain/storm potential through the 
overnight hours. Upstream radar observations indicate a lone 
convective cell--- that has had a history of producing golf ball 
sized hail in Oklahoma---continues to slowly weaken and slide 
southward. This storm appears to be along a wavy front that is 
located just north of a Wichita Falls to Oklahoma City to Kansas 
City line. This front will move slowly towards the south during 
the overnight hours. I expect this activity will continue to wane 
as it moves off the corridor of higher instability that developed
where clouds cleared early in the day. That in mind, I'll 
advertise a 20 PoP across the western Red River Valley with the 
expectation that only a marginal severe weather risk will exist 
should this storm continue to progress towards the south and east.

The other area worth mentioning is across the Brazos Valley where
radar mosaic indicates an uptick in convective elements. There 
appears to be some decent WAA based on the radar 
presentation...and RAP 850-700mb temperature fields confirm this. 
I'll keep a 30-40 PoP across this area with a mention of isolated 
storms given that low level flow may ramp up even more. At this 
time, the severe weather risk looks marginal given that the 
earlier MCS has likely utilized most of the available potential 
energy. Still...we will monitor trends for a marginal severe hail
risk given the increasing low level wind field.

The final change was to beef up fog wording across the area. 
With temperature/dewpoint temperature spreads already less than 5
degrees for most of the area coupled with recent rainfall---
thereby adding in an additional source for upward moisture flux 
into an already moist PBL---feel that guidance which advertises 
foggy conditions are on the right track. In addition, low level 
flow will turn towards the east in response to the broad surface 
low out to the west. Have added a mention of areas of fog for 
parts of the FA with patchy fog for the remaining areas. It's not 
out of the realm of possibility that a dense fog advisory may be 
needed for some areas, but confidence at this time precludes 
posting one now. 

Bain

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 732 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019/
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling and visibility trends through the TAF cycle. 
FROPA timing and strong north post-frontal winds. 

The biggest challenge in this TAF set will be the evolution of
cigs/vsby. MVFR stratus this evening is expected to erode from 
west to east (though some thinning of the stratus deck was noted
east/southeast of D10). While the timing is a little uncertain, 
it's reasonable that FTW...AFW and ACT will see VFR in the next 
2-4 hours. GKY...DAL and D/FW may see a more prolonged period of 
cigs around FL015 through the evening push...but a brief period of
VFR seems possible just before midnight at these TAFs. Upstream 
showers and storms should remain to the northwest of D10 airspace 
as the instability profile is more favorable across SW Oklahoma 
and adjacent parts of western North Texas. Impacts to the Bowie 
cornerpost and northbound departures are still possible. 

My confidence in cig/vsby forecast overnight is low to medium, so
some changes based on the newest guidance and observations may be
needed. At this time, I believe that low level flow will slowly 
back to the east with the approach of a broad low. The increase 
in moisture from East Texas coupled with the added moisture flux 
from recent rainfall should be enough to facilitate BR---possibly 
FG---and IFR to possibly LIFR cigs. I've introduced IFR vsby/cigs
at all TAFs. Poor flying conditions will invade from the east with
AFW and FTW likely being the last two sites to become IFR. Occasional
LIFR cigs/vsby are possible at all TAFs. Brief instances of FG 
are more likely at ACT where conditions may be more conducive.

Poor flying conditions will continue for the Thursday morning 
push with light and variable winds swinging around to the WNW. A 
cold front will plow southward through all TAF sites by 2200 UTC 
Thursday with sustained winds near or just under 20 knots. Some 
gusts as high as 30 knots are not out of the question. VFR is 
expected to return after FROPA for the Thursday evening push.


Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019/
/Through Tonight/

The leading edge of thunderstorms has moved east of the region,
with only lingering showers along a Paris to Hearne line. Dense
cloud cover associated with the system will continue to track 
east, and the far western counties may see some sunshine before 
the day ends. 

While most of the region will remain rain free through the evening
and overnight hours, high res guidance has suggested some 
activity lingering across our far eastern counties this evening 
and tonight. To account for this potential, painted some slight 
chance PoPs across this area. Winds will become light overnight, 
and in combination with the recent rainfall, clearing skies, and 
moist environment, the development of patchy fog will be possible 
after midnight. The general location of development is along and 
east if I-35 and along and south of I-20, but this may need to be 
adjusted based on evening observations and trends. One limiting 
factor may be the quick return of low clouds towards day break. 
Guidance has also suggested some light showers may develop ahead 
of a cold front across the northwest late Wednesday night into 
early Thursday morning. The cold front will approach the 
northwestern counties by early Thursday morning.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019/
/Thursday through Next Week/

Precipitation associated with one of several shortwave 
disturbances will have pushed off to the east at the start of the
period. A cold front will follow closely behind, moving through 
the northwest counties around daybreak and clearing the southeast 
counties late Thursday afternoon. Spotty showers may accompany the
front but significant convection is not expected. High 
temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s across the 
northwestern third of the region behind the front, but should 
reach the lower 80s across the southeast prior to the front's 
arrival. 

As the cold front reaches the Gulf Coast, the next upper level 
low will be deepening across Southern California. The resulting 
upper level pattern will place southwest flow overhead. An initial
shortwave lifting out of the Rio Grande Valley will help generate 
a region of enhanced isentropic lift across Central Texas, leading
to the development of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
Thursday night. POPs will be limited to the southern third of the
region initially, with precipitation shifting north to near the 
I-20 corridor on Friday. A second disturbance will spread 
precipitation even farther north late Friday night into Saturday. 
Thunderstorms will likely remain of the isolated embedded variety,
but elevated instability should be sufficient for a few hail- 
producing cells.

The primary concern during the Friday-Saturday precipitation 
event will be the aggravation of ongoing river flooding across the
region, particularly in the Trinity river basin where many sites 
are already experiencing river levels above flood stage. Minor 
flooding in both rural and urban areas can also be expected each 
day, primarily south of the I-20 corridor. Otherwise, it should 
merely make for a cool and damp start to the weekend with Friday 
and Saturday high temperatures mainly in the 60s. 

Precipitation will exit to the east late Saturday night along with
the aforementioned shortwave disturbance, giving way to ridging 
across the area on Sunday. This should make for a pleasant second 
half of the weekend with dry conditions and high temperatures in 
the mid and upper 70s Sunday afternoon. 

The West Coast low will make a slow and steady approach starting 
Sunday, moving across the Four Corners region on Monday and into 
the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday. An upper ridge should keep the 
area rain free on Monday, but a lead shortwave will bring a round 
of showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday night into 
Tuesday. Rain chances should continue late Tuesday into Wednesday 
as the main upper low moves across the area. Steep lapse rates 
will produce a chance of a few strong to possibly severe storms 
with large hail the main threat, though at this time it's far too 
early to get into specifics. An upper ridge should bring another 
reprieve during the second half of next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  74  53  69  59 /  10  10  20  30  70 
Waco                65  79  54  67  60 /   5  10  40  50  70 
Paris               63  76  52  67  58 /  20  10  10  30  60 
Denton              62  69  51  69  57 /  20  20  10  20  70 
McKinney            63  73  51  68  58 /  20  10  10  30  70 
Dallas              66  76  53  69  60 /  10  10  20  30  70 
Terrell             66  80  53  70  59 /  10  10  20  40  70 
Corsicana           67  81  53  67  60 /  10  10  40  50  70 
Temple              66  82  54  66  60 /   5  20  50  60  70 
Mineral Wells       60  67  48  66  54 /  10  10  10  20  70 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79