593 
FXUS63 KBIS 061720
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

For the midday update, only some minor changes to sky cover and
updated latest sensible weather elements. Sky and temperatures
have been tricky today as we've had more sun than expected this
morning, but with our cold start little mixing, temperatures have
been slow to warm. This afternoon mixing will still not be great,
and widespread cu should bring broken ceiling most area, at least
through mid afternoon. Our forecast highs from this morning are
still very similar to a blend of short term guidance, so no
adjustments to afternoon highs. We could get a stray sprinkle or
two from the developing cu field, but kept afternoon pops dry.

UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Lowered sky cover a little more north and central through the
morning. Otherwise no changes other than populating latest
sensible weather elements.

UPDATE Issued at 812 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Made a few minor tweaks to sky cover and populate latest sensible
weather elements.

UPDATE Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Latest regional radar shows a snow/rain mix along and just north
of the Wyoming/Montana border, moving east with time. Patchy fog
was noted across portions of southwest ND, and will continue this
through just after sunrise. Increasing mid level clouds streaming
in from Montana ahead of the aforementioned precipitation will
inhibit further fog development and likely improve visibilities.
Far southwest and southern counties will continue with a chance or
snow or rain through the morning, otherwise partly to mostly
cloudy and cool conditions will continue today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Latest water vapor imagery and model data show a mid/upper level
shortwave scooting east across northern Wyoming early this
morning. The best forcing and hence precipitation remains just
south of the border, however our far southwest counties will
remain on the fringe of precipitation/light snow this morning and
thus will maintain a chance of Pops here. Otherwise, northwest
cyclonic flow will continue with no significant shortwaves noted
through tonight. However, partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions
will prevail along with cooler than normal temperatures. Highs 
today will mostly be in the low to mid 50s. Dry tonight with lows
in the lower 30s. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

The mid/upper flow briefly transitions to southwest and westerly
as heights rise, however, an embedded 700mb shortwave ejects from
the inter-mountain west and propagates into northern South Dakota
during the day Tuesday. This results in a chance of PoPs/rain and/or
snow showers initially developing over southwestern ND Tuesday 
morning, then expanding/slight chance of rain showers into south 
central during the afternoon and evening. The shortwave slowly 
departs Tuesday night, however a threat of showers will linger 
Tuesday night across southern North Dakota. Once this shortwave 
departs, heights will then be suppressed once again Wednesday as a
northern stream shortwave and associated surface cold front shift
from north to south during the day Wednesday. May see a few showers
across southern North Dakota Wednesday, so a slight chance/chance
of showers per gridded data looks good. It will remain dry north 
Monday through Wednesday, followed by cold air advection Wednesday
night through most of Thursday resulting in dry weather. Warm air
advection initiates Thursday evening/night as a warm front extending
from Saskatchewan into north central ND shifts east. The gridded 
data is dry, as the GFS is the only model that generates light 
precipitation amounts along and ahead of the warm front. Western 
and central ND will be in the warm sector for most of Friday, with
highs reaching the lower 60s. Differences arise Friday night and 
Saturday on the handling of a shortwave and associated surface 
cold front. The GFS is faster and impacts mainly north central 
through east central ND with precipitation Friday afternoon 
through Friday evening; while the ECMWF is slower, and its track 
is farther west impacting western and most of central ND with some
showers Friday night through Saturday. The GFS Ensemble Mean 
tends to follow the GFS solution. The gridded forecast looks to 
resemble a Canadian solution with a slower closed low scenario 
and better chances of precipitation. High uncertainty on the exact
track and location of precipitation areas, but temperatures are 
forecast to be in the 60s both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Light
and variable winds today will become southeast across the forecast
area on Tuesday with the strongest winds through 18Z 10-15kts at
KDIK. MVFR clouds will linger around southwest ND through the
forecast period. At this time the favored period for possible MVFR
ceilings at KDIK would be from 14-18Z Tuesday, but too much 
uncertainty to include MVFR at this time.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH