647 
FXUS63 KIND 041636
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 

An upper level system will bring rain chances to central Indiana 
today, then high pressure will bring a break in rain tonight and 
Sunday. A front will then meander across the area next week bringing 
frequent chances for rain once again. Temperatures will start out 
below normal today, then bounce around from below normal to above 
normal at times next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 

Early this morning a front was to the south of the area, while aloft 
an upper trough was across Missouri. Showers had developed across 
parts of Illinois and were moving toward the area.

There will be some isentropic lift across the area today, and an 
upper jet streak will also move across. While overall forcing is not 
impressive, it should be sufficient to bring rain across parts of 
the area today.

The rain will have to fight some drier air across the northern 
forecast area. It looks like an initial push of rain will make it 
into the northwestern area then fizzle out. Will try to show this in 
the hourly PoPs, with likely PoPs diminishing quickly. Chance or 
lower PoPs look reasonable across most of the northern forecast area 
for the remainder of the day.

Across the south, better forcing and moisture lead to likely or 
higher category PoPs today. 

PoPs will diminish this afternoon from west to east as forcing exits.

With the clouds and rain around, trended toward the cooler of the 
model numbers for highs today. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization 
was accepted for most items.

If you find the recent lack of dry days disturbing, then tonight 
into Sunday night will be something to look forward to. High 
pressure will build in and should keep the area dry through then.

After a cool night tonight, the sunshine on Sunday will allow 
temperatures to return to closer to normal on Sunday. Did keep the 
northeast cooler though as some of the models show the potential for 
some low clouds to hang around Sunday morning.

For Monday into Monday night, surface flow will become southwest as 
the high pressure exits. Another upper wave will approach the area 
from the west as a surface front sinks toward the area. 

The southwest flow will lead to moisture, the moisture will lead to 
rain, the rain will lead to the wet side of the forecast for parts 
of central Indiana later Monday night. However, for now will keep 
PoPs low with better forcing not arriving until after the short term.

Stayed close to the model blend for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Confidence is low this period. The ECMWF starts the period off
with mainly zonal flow on Tuesday...transitioning to a ridge 
aloft over Central Indiana on Wednesday Night. Little upper 
support is seen. Meanwhile within the lower levels...a weak 
frontal boundary looks to settle across Indiana...sagging 
southward from the Great Lakes. Forecast builder has inserted pop 
on these days...but with little upper support...confidence remains
low.

On Thursday and Thursday night Low pressure is expected to push
out of the Central plains toward the Great Lakes. Within the
southwest flow aloft ahead of the system the ECMWF depicts a weak
short wave approaching the Ohio Valley...followed by a stronger
cold front dragged across Indiana on Thursday Night. The ECMWF
then continues to linger the stalled cold front across Indiana On
Friday. Thus will need to continue precip chances again on
Thursday through Friday as better forcing features appear in play.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 041800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Good confidence that the showers will be ending at IND and BMG by 
21z and 22z respectively. Also, expect flying conditions to improve 
to VFR around 19z at LAF, 22-23z at IND and HUF and 01z at BMG.

Northeast winds around 7 knots will become light and variable after 
01z-02z. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...MK