National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product FWSMPX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: FWSMPX
Product Timestamp: 2019-05-04 11:17 UTC
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626
FNUS73 KMPX 041117
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Lost Valley SNA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019
Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 CDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning - for the Lost Valley SNA Burn,
Fog and heavy dew should burn off this morning under mostly sunny
skies. Light southwest winds will increase this morning and gust near
10 to 15 mph this afternoon. RH values will quickly decrease to
near 40 percent by mid-day, and drop into the 20s by mid afternoon.
For your burn, winds will decrease around sunset and become light
and variable to near calm. Relative humidity will increase to
above 50 percent by 9 pm this evening. If you have any questions,
give us a call at 952-361-6671.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear. Rain
showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
rain showers late in the evening. Patchy fog
late in the evening. Patchy fog late in the
evening, then areas of fog late in the night.
Chance of showers near 100 percent.
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Min 45.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
Light winds.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 600-1900 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph decreasing to around 5 mph
late in the night.
Mixing winds........South 6 to 15 mph decreasing to around 5 mph
late in the night.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17200 knot-ft/ at ignition. Min...poor
/2400 knot-ft/.
TIME (CDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
Temp............57 55 52 51 50 49 48 47 47 46
RH..............55 69 80 83 83 89 89 88 87 86
20 FT wind dir..W S S S SE SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 1 3 2 3 3 2 2
20 FT wind gust. 5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.10 7 9 13 15 13 9 6 5 5
Mixing wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Mixing wind spd.10 7 9 13 15 13 9 6 5 5
Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
SDspl kt-ft/100017 4 6 9 11 9 5 3 2 3
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Areas of fog early in the
morning, then patchy fog early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-1900 ft AGL increasing to 8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3200-50300 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (68300 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate.
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Temp............46 53 62 67 70 70
RH..............89 77 52 34 29 27
20 ft wind......S 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.5 5 6 10 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....600 3100 5600 8100 8100 8100
Transport wind..SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 W 12 W 14 W 15
Mixing wind.....SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 W 12 W 14 W 15
Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 5
SDspl kt-ft/10003 22 50 81 97 105
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Slight chance of rain showers early in the
morning. Chance of showers 20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......6800-8100 ft AGL decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
2 to 10 mph late in the evening.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
2 to 10 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (81100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(500 knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Temp............67 59 51 48 45 44
RH..............32 44 59 68 79 86
20 ft wind......SW 5 S 4 S 3 S 4 W 3 N 4
20 ft wind gust.6 4 5 5 6
Mix hgt (ft)....8100 5500 2900 300 500 700
Transport wind..W 15 SW 12 SW 6 S 2 SE 5 E 9
Mixing wind.....W 15 SW 12 SW 6 S 2 SE 5 E 9
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 4
SDspl kt-ft/1000105 55 14 1 2 5
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Chance
of showers 50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2600 ft AGL increasing to 3100-5000 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing winds........North 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (9500-49600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low.
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Temp............44 46 50 56 60 61
RH..............93 86 71 55 49 44
20 ft wind......N 4 N 5 N 5 N 5 NW 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.6 7 7 7 6 7
Mix hgt (ft)....900 2000 3100 4200 4500 4800
Transport wind..N 13 N 13 N 12 N 10 N 10 N 10
Mixing wind.....N 13 N 13 N 12 N 10 N 10 N 10
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100010 22 31 38 41 43
$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Mark Cleveland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1908202.0/MPX
.EMAIL mark.cleveland@state.mn.us