610 
FXUS65 KFGZ 040426
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 PM MST Fri May 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect above normal temperatures with dry weather
this weekend. Starting Monday, an area of low pressure will bring
noticeably cooler temperatures and chances for showers and
afternoon thunderstorms through next Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...A westerly flow aloft has developed over Arizona which
will last through the weekend with variable high cloudiness. 
Updated forecast earlier in the evening for more clouds this 
evening. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...

Made very few changes to the 7 day forecast. This weekend looks
dry across northern Arizona. Afternoon max temperatures to be
around 7 degrees above normal for the dates. Breezy afternoons
are in store, with Sunday seeing the faster conditions with S-SW
10-20 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph.

From Monday through Wednesday - The operational models are in
very good agreement in their movement of a closed low that will
arrive in western Arizona late Monday. This low is seen on
satellite near 35N/135W now. On Monday, weak instability and
forcing associated with the nearing low will bring a slight
chances of showers across portions of Yavapai and Coconino
Counties. The coverage of showers should increase Tuesday as the
center of the low pressure system moves across the state. Mid-
level instability and residual moisture will create conditions
favorable for isolated thunderstorm development across much of
northern Arizona. The first low moves out Tuesday night but a
broad trough of low pressure to sit over the Great Basin /
northern Arizona through at least Wednesday, and chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue.

Unsettled conditions are probable Thursday and Friday as progs
indicate a trough of low pressure either overhead or to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package..VFR conditions will continue over 
the next 24 hours under occasional mid to high clouds. Winds light 
and variable overnight. After 18Z Sat, surface winds southwest to
west at 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts. Winds will decrease after 
sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The current dry weather pattern will continue 
through Sunday. Occasional afternoon breezes on Saturday will 
increase across northern Arizona by Sunday afternoon. Afternoon 
ventilation and Haines Index values will be highest Sunday.

.Monday through Wednesday...A weather system will reach Arizona 
by Monday. As a result, a trend of cooler daytime temperatures and 
increasing shower and storm coverage will begin for this period.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/DL
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff