264 
FXUS63 KDDC 032019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Stratus has scattered out across western sections of the forecast
area this afternoon but continues hanging tough over the remainder
of the area. An area of showers and thunderstorms was developing
over northwest Kansas in an area of 500+ J/KG CAPE and weak surface
convergence. A few of these storms may hang on long enough to move
into far northwest/northern sections of the forecast area but, given
the weak forcing, should diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

A moist boundary layer persists across central and southwest Kansas
with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in most areas. This will keep
overnight lows above the 12z MOS guidance. Have bumped up lows
into the upper 40s to around 50 but this may still be too cool
in some areas. This airmass will be favorable for areas of fog to
develop again tonight. The previous shift included it in the
forecast over the eastern half of the area tonight which looks
reasonable. The various mesoscale models show areas of fog anywhere
across the area again tonight. Have extended the fog over all the
forecast area and let the next shift monitor conditions for any
potential fog headlines. 

Saturday will start out with low clouds and fog but conditions
should improve by mid morning over most locations with increasing
southerly winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon and these could move 
into southwest Kansas by early evening. The latest SWODY2 has a 
marginal severe risk over the far southwest counties. Not too 
excited about severe potential as the instability and shear will 
be somewhat marginal but can't totally rule out an isolated severe
hail or high wind report.

Upper level westerly flow will be increasing through the early 
part of next week. A shortwave trough in the northern branch of 
the flow will move east across the northern Plains on Monday which
will force a cold front south into western Kansas with increasing
chances for thunderstorms. A long advertised upper low moving out
of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern U.S. on Monday will 
accelerate eastward toward the central Plains on Tuesday. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show this but differ considerably on the position 
of the front on Tuesday with the ECMWF faster in moving the front 
south through the High Plains and this model looks more reasonable
with the position of the upper level features. Obviously still 
alot of uncertainty in the model solutions early next week but 
Monday and Tuesday should be the most active days as far as severe
thunderstorm potential. The mid to latter part of next week will 
be quite a bit cooler. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms
appears to be on tap with the upper wave moving out over a fairly
cool airmass in the lower levels. Thursday morning still looks 
fairly cool with lows possibly dipping into the 30s out toward the
Colorado border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Stratus is starting to lift and break up across central and
southwest Kansas per surface obs and visible satellite loops. Cigs
will lift out of the IFR into the MVFR category. Vsbys are also
improving and we should see VFR conditions at all the terminals by
early afternoon. Conditions will erode again tonight as a moist
boundary layer persists across the area. Look for IFR cigs to
return to most locations with vsbys dropping to around a mile.
Lower visibilities, down to a quarter to half mile, will be 
possible later tonight. Conditions will improve rapidly toward the
end of this forecast period across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  74  51  80 /   0   0  20  20 
GCK  49  74  49  82 /  10  10  20  10 
EHA  50  74  50  82 /  10  20  30  20 
LBL  51  75  50  82 /  10  10  30  20 
HYS  47  74  51  78 /  20  10  30  10 
P28  51  72  50  76 /  10   0  40  40 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard