240 
FXUS63 KBIS 031823
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
123 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Cold front currently moving east of the James River Valley and
showers will be exiting the southern Valley shortly. Sunny skies
cover the west and central. The approaching trough can be seen in
clouds/wind shift in alberta but precipitation not yet seen.
Dewpoints this afternoon south central are in the upper teens
along with RH. Updated temperatures and dewpoints otherwise
current forecast looks good. 

UPDATE Issued at 853 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Currently a cold front was moving east into the James River 
Valley. Cam models generate some showers along the front as it
moves through the southern James River valley in Dickey and
Lamoure counties. So added a chance of showers for a few hours 
this morning. Getting some strato-cu field across north central 
North Dakota. RAP soundings clear this up pretty quickly as teh 
inversion breaks today. 

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Weak surface cold front just east of Bismarck, now along a line
from near Rolla to Harvey and south to Linton. Few showers in the
southern James River Valley will continue to move along and ahead
of the front. This precipitation should be exiting between 7AM 
and 8AM. Subsidence behind this front will lead to mostly sunny 
conditions. Next shortwave will and surface cold front will 
approach the northwest by late afternoon/early evening with 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Latest water vapor imagery loop, radar imagery, and surface
observations show a mid level shortwave trough and associated 
surface cold front sliding into central ND early this morning. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue along 
and ahead of the cold front, passing through the southern James 
River Valley by late morning. Expect a fairly sharp clearing 
trend once this system pushes through with subsidence and weak 
cold air advection taking control through the morning. This will 
be followed up by a resurgence of warm air advection this afternoon/early
evening for all but the far north. The warm air advection is out
ahead of our next mid/upper level shortwave now passing through 
southwestern Alberta. Highs this afternoon will reach into the 60s
except in the north where upper 50s can be expected along with a 
chance of rainshowers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 

The next shortwave that approaches the north late this afternoon 
and evening will scoot across southern Canada tonight. In doing
so, this will drag a surface cold front southeast through the
forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. However the 
main threat for precipitation looks to remain across the north 
through this evening before waning and ending. Additional mid 
level shortwaves will follow overnight along with increasing 
frontogenetical forcing in the 850mb-700mb layer which results 
in more precipitation to develop and nose into northwest ND late 
tonight. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s to  lower 40s.  

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Cooler temperatures dominate the long term period. Low level 
frontogenetical forcing from Friday night remains across the 
north Saturday morning for a chance of showers, then sags south in
the afternoon while ascent weakens. Thus, a blend of slight 
chance to chance of showers can be expected over southern ND
Saturday afternoon. A few more shortwaves shift through Sunday 
with a continued chance for showers. A stronger mid level wave is
slated for Sunday night through Monday night with a mix of rain/snow
at night, then showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms during
the day. Drier conditions then take control Tuesday through Thursday,
with highs in the 50s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

At noon CDT a cold front was moving through eastern North Dakota.
Skies have cleared across all of west and central North Dakota
with VFR conditions. 

A trough of low pressure will move into northwest North dakota 
this evening. This will be the focus for scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms north. MVFR Ceilings 3 to 5 thousand KISN-
KMOT after 12Z Saturday. Otherwise VFR tonight and Saturday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA