National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFFC
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFFC
Product Timestamp: 2019-05-03 17:59 UTC
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983 FXUS62 KFFC 031759 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 159 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for the 18Z Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Forecast area "sandwiched" between systems that will enhance the chances for convection on the edges of the area today. Weak wave off the Florida east coast meanders northward spreading isolated to scattered convection into the southeast. Weak mid-level energy in the southwest flow brings increased chances for convection to the northwest. Instability not all that impressive today with weak mid- level wind field and moderate lift at best. Should keep risk for stronger/marginally severe thunderstorms to a minimum. Shallow upper trough axis and moderate short wave shifts into the vicinity Saturday. Dynamics not especially strong, but certainly better than today. Moderate instability and slightly better mid-level wind field will up severe thunderstorm risk a bit. Main threat would be damaging winds, with at least a marginal risk for hail. 20 LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Models are in pretty good agreement with the storm system early in the long term and they are coming into agreement on the end of the long term system. The short wave will be taking a little longer to exit on Sunday and this will keep chance pops going through most of the day Sunday. However by Sunday evening drier air will be spreading over the CWA giving us a couple of dry days before the next system brings another chance of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS/ECMWF are developing an upper trough over the western US and this is amplifying a ridge over the eastern US. The GFS is more amplified than the ECMWF, however this is a change in the ECMWF from previous runs giving a little more confidence in the pop forecast at the end of the long term. 17 && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... MVFR/IFR over most of the TAF sites this morning has eroded and low- end VFR conditions are in place areawide to begin the period, with the exception of some ongoing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far northern of the forecast area. After some clearing in the overnight hours, BKN ceilings around 050 will redevelop Saturday morning ahead of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. The most likely time for TSRA is anticipated to start 15-17Z across the metro TAF sites. Winds will be mainly SW through the period, at 4-8 kts this afternoon dropping to 4 kts or less during the overnight hours, then steadily increasing back to around 7-10 kts by Saturday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 85 64 84 65 / 40 20 60 60 Atlanta 84 66 82 65 / 50 20 70 70 Blairsville 78 58 77 60 / 60 30 80 80 Cartersville 84 64 81 64 / 50 30 80 80 Columbus 87 67 85 67 / 30 20 60 60 Gainesville 82 64 80 64 / 50 20 70 70 Macon 86 66 85 67 / 40 10 60 60 Rome 84 63 82 63 / 50 30 80 80 Peachtree City 85 65 83 65 / 40 20 60 60 Vidalia 85 69 87 69 / 50 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King