874 
FNUS73 KMPX 031000
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Murphy-Hanrahan...NRRI
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
500 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 03. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Good morning, for the Murphy-Hanrahan Burn - 
Skies should be mostly clear with a few clouds moving in from the
west later today. Winds will be light and variable during the early
morning, but should take on a southeast direction by mid/late morning, 
and a southerly direction in the afternoon. Any rain chances should 
remain to your west today. Fine fuels should dry out quickly as min 
RH values drop to near 50 percent by mid-day and near 40 percent in
the afternoon. If you have any questions, feel free to call us 
at 952-361-6671.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. 
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 64. 
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 5 mph at 
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 5 to 9 mph. 
                    Gusts up to 20 mph late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1800-3200 
                    ft AGL increasing to 4000-5400 ft AGL late in 
                    the morning. 
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph increasing to 21 to 22 mph 
                    late in the afternoon. 
Mixing winds........South 9 to 18 mph increasing to 21 to 22 mph 
                    late in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /14100 knot-ft/ at ignition. 
                    Max...excellent /63100 knot-ft/ increasing to 
                    excellent (69700 knot-ft) early in the 
                    afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 4. 

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 
Temp............48  52  54  56  58  59  61  61  64  63  
RH..............68  61  57  53  51  49  46  48  45  44  
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   8   
20 FT wind gust.6   8   7   10  10  12  14  14  16  14  
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  12  13  15  16  18  21  22  
Mixing wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   
Mixing wind spd.9   10  10  12  13  15  16  18  21  22  
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   
SDspl kt-ft/100014  23  29  40  52  63  70  82  94  102 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then 
                    becoming partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers 
                    in the evening. Patchy fog early in the 
                    morning. Chance of showers 40 percent. 
Temperature.........Min 44. 
RH..................Max 96 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming 
                    light, then becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph after 
                    midnight becoming light. 
Mixing height.......3900-5500 ft AGL decreasing to 400-900 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph decreasing to 6 to 10 
                    mph after midnight. 
Mixing winds........Southwest 13 to 22 mph decreasing to 6 to 10 
                    mph after midnight. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (67000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to 
                    good (1800-47600 knot-ft) in the late evening 
                    and overnight. 

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   
Temp............61     56     53     51     49     45     
RH..............49     62     71     80     83     93     
20 ft wind......S 7    S 6    S 5    SW 4   SW 5   SW 5   
20 ft wind gust.14     10     8      10     8      6      
Mix hgt (ft)....5500   3900   2400   900    700    500    
Transport wind..S 22   SW 20  SW 15  SW 10  SW 8   SW 7   
Mixing wind.....S 22   SW 20  SW 15  SW 10  SW 8   SW 7   
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4      
SDspl kt-ft/1000104    67     31     8      5      3      

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning. 
Temperature.........Max 72. 
RH..................Min 33 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph. 
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 8700-8800 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph. 
Mixing winds........West 6 to 14 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1300-41500 knot-ft) increasing to 
                    excellent (104400 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate. 

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Temp............45     53     63     69     72     72     
RH..............93     80     54     39     33     33     
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 6   SW 6   SW 8   SW 8   SW 7   
20 ft wind gust.5             7      10     10     10     
Mix hgt (ft)....300    3100   5900   8800   8700   8700   
Transport wind..SW 6   SW 7   W 8    W 9    W 12   W 14   
Mixing wind.....SW 6   SW 7   W 8    W 9    W 12   W 14   
Haines index....5      5      4      4      4      5      
SDspl kt-ft/10001      19     42     70     87     105    

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...David C. Pauly
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1908067.0/MPX
.EMAIL Griz@scicable.net