467 
FXUS63 KOAX 022358
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

Forecast concerns into next week will be timing of showers and 
thunderstorms with this active pattern.

The clearing skies occurred overnight and we have plenty of sunshine 
for today.  Lows in northeast Nebraska dropped back into the 30 to 
35 degree range, while those that held on to the clouds longer 
were in the lower to mid 40s. Surface high pressure is over the 
region today with temperatures rising into the lower 60s.

Visible satellite shows cumuliform clouds (showers) already 
developing in northwest Kansas and another area of clouds 
(showers) in western Nebraska, so enjoy this very beautiful May 
weather today. 

The general pattern over the larger scale the next few days has 
closed h5 low pressure in the Lake Winnipeg area and shortwaves 
moving through the trough across the Northern and Central Plains.
Meanwhile close low pressure at h5 off the West Coast moves toward
California. This pattern is supportive of near or above normal
temperatures and periodic rain chances.

As the moisture increases and lift from the shortwave trough over
Colorado moves east/upper level jet support 
increases/frontogenesis, should see clouds increase with showers 
developing between 06-12Z across southeast Nebraska, spreading 
into parts of east central and southwest Iowa during the day. 
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the light side between a 
trace and 0.1" Meanwhile, the energy from a slightly lagging 
northern shortwave will drag a cold front into northeast Nebraska.
Instability/convergence along the front Friday afternoon should 
spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Moisture and instability 
are limited so have isolated to scattered covered mentioned. The 
precipitation should drift southeast and weaken/dissipate 
overnight.

There is a surface boundary that will form and for now we are on
the warm side of the boundary with highs in the 70s Saturday and
Sunday. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop and move 
along the boundary Saturday night with a stronger push of cold air
across the Dakotas Sunday with post frontal showers and 
thunderstorms. The front only pushes southward through parts of
the area.  The coverage of the rain locally appears spotty 
Saturday night through Sunday with better coverage to the north 
and east of the local forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

Sunday night through Wednesday night there will be periods of 
showers and thunderstorms. We have convergent flow between the 
northern stream shortwave and the flow from the closed low over 
southern California/Arizona. Cooler air to the north combined 
with warmer/moisture laden air being drawn northward will created 
a battleground areas where the storms will be more favored. Right 
now, this area looks to be over parts of Nebraska and Iowa. A 
surface front will stall in the area Sunday night through Monday 
night before pushing south Tuesday. We will have to work out the 
details as we get closer related to where the front is and the 
strength of the forcing/timing of higher chance for rain is. Right
now we have our highest pops 

Highs Monday and Tuesday should top our in the 60s and 70s with 
cooler 50s and 60s Wednesday and 60s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

VFR conditions should persist through Friday afternoon. Winds 
will generally be light and out of the south. Friday, a chance of
showers exists after 16Z with a cold front moving into northeast
Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Fajman