AFOS product FWSMPX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: FWSMPX
Product Timestamp: 2019-05-02 12:05 UTC

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FNUS73 KMPX 021205
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Happy Valley WMA Rx Burn...Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 02. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning, for the Happy Valley WMA Burn -

The rain should be over, but could get a few light sprinkles this 
morning. Winds will be light, but should take on a more westerly 
direction as we go throughout the day. Should see a few brakes in 
the clouds, with some peaks of sun by the afternoon. If you have 
any questions, give us a call at 952-361-6671.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. 
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 54. 
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise 
                    Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph early 
                    in the morning. 
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100-3800 
                    ft AGL increasing to 4300-6200 ft AGL in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. 
Transport winds.....West 10 to 14 mph. 
Mixing winds........West 10 to 14 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good /46700 knot-ft/ at ignition. 
                    Max...excellent /72800 knot-ft/. 
Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 3. 

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 
Temp............44  46  47  49  50  52  53  54  54  
RH..............79  73  68  61  58  52  50  46  45  
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10  10  8   7   
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.8 
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  10  
Mixing wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
Mixing wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  10  
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   
SDspl kt-ft/100047  52  57  62  67  71  73  64  53  

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. 
Temperature.........Min 35. 
RH..................Max 89 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. 
Mixing height.......3900-5700 ft AGL decreasing to 300-2100 ft AGL 
                    early in the evening. 
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 
                    3 to 7 mph early in the evening. 
Mixing winds........Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 
                    3 to 7 mph early in the evening. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (800-42100 knot-ft). 

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   
Temp............53     47     42     39     37     35     
RH..............46     60     73     79     82     89     
20 ft wind......NW 4   NE 3   E 3    SE 3   SE 4   SE 4   
20 ft wind gust.6      5      4      5      6      6      
Mix hgt (ft)....5700   2100   300    300    300    300    
Transport wind..NW 8   NE 5   E 3    SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   
Mixing wind.....NW 8   NE 5   E 3    SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4      
SDspl kt-ft/100042     9      1      1      1      2      

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers in the 
                    afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms late 
                    in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 
                    percent. 
Temperature.........Max 61. 
RH..................Min 49 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in 
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and 
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 5000-6000 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph 
                    early in the afternoon. 
Mixing winds........South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph 
                    early in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1700-34500 knot-ft) increasing to 
                    good to excellent (59300-99300 knot-ft) in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate. 

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Temp............37     47     55     58     60     61     
RH..............85     65     55     49     49     51     
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 7   S 10   S 11   S 11   S 10   
20 ft wind gust.6      13     18     18     19     17     
Mix hgt (ft)....300    3100   4800   5300   5700   5500   
Transport wind..SE 8   S 13   S 16   S 17   S 18   S 21   
Mixing wind.....SE 8   S 13   S 16   S 17   S 18   S 21   
Haines index....5      4      4      4      5      4      
SDspl kt-ft/10002      35     67     79     92     98     

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1907964.0/MPX
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us
252 
FNUS73 KMPX 021530 RRA
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Happy Valley WMA Rx Burn...Minnesota Department of 
Natural Resources National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 
705 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 02. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning, for the Happy Valley WMA Burn -

The rain should be over, but could get a few light sprinkles this 
morning. Winds will be light, but should take on a more westerly 
direction as we go throughout the day. Should see a few brakes in 
the clouds, with some peaks of sun by the afternoon. If you have 
any questions, give us a call at 952-361-6671.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. 
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 54. 
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise 
                    Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph early 
                    in the morning. 
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100-3800 
                    ft AGL increasing to 4300-6200 ft AGL in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. 
Transport winds.....West 10 to 14 mph. 
Mixing winds........West 10 to 14 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good /46700 knot-ft/ at ignition. 
                    Max...excellent /72800 knot-ft/. 
Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 3. 

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 
Temp............44  46  47  49  50  52  53  54  54  
RH..............79  73  68  61  58  52  50  46  45  
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10  10  8   7   
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.8 
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  10  
Mixing wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
Mixing wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  10  
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   
SDspl kt-ft/100047  52  57  62  67  71  73  64  53  

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. 
Temperature.........Min 35. 
RH..................Max 89 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. 
Mixing height.......3900-5700 ft AGL decreasing to 300-2100 ft AGL 
                    early in the evening. 
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 
                    3 to 7 mph early in the evening. 
Mixing winds........Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 
                    3 to 7 mph early in the evening. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (800-42100 knot-ft). 

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   
Temp............53     47     42     39     37     35     
RH..............46     60     73     79     82     89     
20 ft wind......NW 4   NE 3   E 3    SE 3   SE 4   SE 4   
20 ft wind gust.6      5      4      5      6      6      
Mix hgt (ft)....5700   2100   300    300    300    300    
Transport wind..NW 8   NE 5   E 3    SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   
Mixing wind.....NW 8   NE 5   E 3    SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4      
SDspl kt-ft/100042     9      1      1      1      2      

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers in the 
                    afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms late 
                    in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 
                    percent. 
Temperature.........Max 61. 
RH..................Min 49 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in 
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and 
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 5000-6000 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph 
                    early in the afternoon. 
Mixing winds........South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph 
                    early in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1700-34500 knot-ft) increasing to 
                    good to excellent (59300-99300 knot-ft) in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate. 

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Temp............37     47     55     58     60     61     
RH..............85     65     55     49     49     51     
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 7   S 10   S 11   S 11   S 10   
20 ft wind gust.6      13     18     18     19     17     
Mix hgt (ft)....300    3100   4800   5300   5700   5500   
Transport wind..SE 8   S 13   S 16   S 17   S 18   S 21   
Mixing wind.....SE 8   S 13   S 16   S 17   S 18   S 21   
Haines index....5      4      4      4      5      4      
SDspl kt-ft/10002      35     67     79     92     98     

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1907964.0/MPX
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us