627 
FXUS63 KFGF 291218
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
718 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

08z sfc map shows sfc low just east of Bismarck with water vapor
showing upper low moving into east central ND. Both of these
system will move east today. Moisture and precipitation is mainly
on the north and east side of the upper low with the best
frontogenetical forcing having shifted into north central MN by
12z. Therefore the band of precipitation along Hwy 2 from Grand
Forks to Devils Lake will continue to weaken while precipitation
may get a bit heavier yet east of Grand Forks toward Bemidji. But
also the mid level forcing is weaker as you progress thru the day
as the 500/700 mb low weakens. 

Therfore thru the morning expect the precipitation to gradually
end in Devils Lake basin and radar/obs indicate main threat for
accumulating snow is winding down. Will let advisory expire as
scheduled at 12z for DVL basin. Meanwhile wet snow will fall east
of the RRV over Minnesota thru mid morning before transitioning
back to rain. Slushy accumulation will be likely in some areas,
but rate of precipitation fall will likely limit extent.  

As the sfc low moves east winds will turn northeast and then
northerly in E ND/RRV thru the morning and afternoon with gusty
winds at times to 30 kts. With cloud cover, exiting precipitation
and a north wind not much temp rise today in E ND/RRV, maybe 4-7
degrees. East of the RRV precipitation will linger into the aftn,
esp Bemidji/Baudette area, though light in nature. Temperatures
there will reach upr 30s/40. 

High pressure will move into western ND tonight with some brief
clearing into central and NE ND. Clouds likely to hold SE ND into
MN. Temps will fall in to the mid/upper 20s in DVL basin where
better chc of clearing to around 30 or low 30s elsewhere. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Tuesday will see clouds move back in and the chance for rain
showers will return into SE ND in the aftn. Temps in the low- mid
40s for highs, which will be around 20 degrees below normal.

Progressive pattern continues through the week with southwesterly to 
zonal flow aloft granting almost daily shortwave passages over the 
area. This will bring periodic rain and snow chances with Wednesday 
into Thursday holds best chance for measurable precipitation, 
although precipitation will be light in the absence of better 
moisture availability. Snow chances will be mainly dictated by 
diurnal and elevation influences with higher areas outside of the 
Red River Valley holding best chances with a stipulation of 
precipitation falling during nighttime. A dusting of snow may be 
possible overnight Wednesday before succumbing to May's solar energy 
zapping snow back into its liquid state. 

Ample cloud cover and lack of appreciable warm air advection will 
keep temperatures cool for this time of year with lows in the 30s 
and highs in the 50s. The warmest day in the forecast is currently 
Friday with highs into the 60s accompanied by some sunshine, 
although confidence in this is low given the extent into the 
forecast within a progressive pattern. Alas a cold front is progged 
to sweep away this brief chance for warmth this weekend continuing 
the cool pattern. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

IFR conditions for most areas this morning with slow improvement
this aftn/eve. Northeast to north winds gusting to 30 kts GFK, DVL
area this aftn. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Moderate flooding continues along the Red at Fargo/Moorhead and from 
Oslo downstream (Pembina hovering right around major flood stage), 
along with Abercrombie on the Wild Rice (ND). All locations within 
the Red River basin have seen their spring snowmelt crest. Any 
additional rises throughout the remainder of the spring and into the 
summer will be driven by excessive rainfall.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the next 
week. However, widespread excessive precipitation and significant 
river rises are not expected at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

River point flood warnings continue across portions of
the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

&&
$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...Lee