323 
FXUS61 KCLE 202202
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
602 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure will move northeast through western
Pennsylvania and New York to Quebec by Sunday morning. A weak
trough will linger back southwest behind the low pressure system
Sunday morning. High pressure will build east across the area
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The high will slide south
across the Tennessee Valley region Monday and become nearly
stationary. Low pressure will move northeast through the central
Great Lakes by Tuesday morning followed by a cold front Tuesday
night. High pressure will build east east across the local area
Wednesday night and to the mid Atlantic coast by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure system will move east into the Carolina
states by Sunday night allowing an upper level ridge of high
pressure to build east into the region. Surface low pressure
over western Pennsylvania will move quickly northeast of the
area tonight. The low continues to produce cyclonic flow over
the western portions of the forecast area this afternoon
affecting Toledo and Findlay. Eventually, the band of
precipitation will gradually dissipate this evening. Another
band of showers and even thunderstorms will continue to expand
over the eastern portions of the forecast area affecting
Crawford and Erie Counties in Pennsylvania. This convection
continues to develop with day time heating and clearing. Surface
temperatures climbed into the 50s to near 60 as well aiding in
destabilization. Eventually, the whole package will move out to
the east and drier air will begin to push east into the local
area. There is the possibility that some light fog will develop
over the Pennsylvania counties late tonight. Otherwise, rest of
the area should not see a problem with the fog at this time.
Generally fair weather is expected for tomorrow into tomorrow
night as the high pressure begins to build east into the area.
Cool air advection will take place across the area tonight and
Sunday but some warming into the 60s is expected in the west
where there is a greater potential for some sun. Overnight lows
both tonight and Sunday night will be in the lower to middle
40s. Slight warm air advection will take place Sunday night in
the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Monday with models showing a ridge extending 
north across eastern Ohio and nwrn PA from the central and southern 
Appalachians. Low pressure will be centered over Iowa with a 
stationary front across the central lakes. An upper ridge will be 
building into the area as well.  Eastern Ohio and nwrn PA however 
will still begin the day under the weakening influence of low 
pressure over the VA coast. Am concerned that lingering clouds will 
be in nwrn PA right in the morning but with the building ridge 
expect any clouds will break through the morning. Will begin with 
about 65% clouds there and then decrease through the morning. 
Elsewhere expect PC skies. The upper ridge will drift east Monday 
night allowing clouds to increase towards morning west, the moisture 
associated with low pressure moving into the central lakes. A cold 
front associated with the low will move through Tuesday evening 
likely touching off showers and thunderstorms.  Will have chance to 
likely pops Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Wednesday models are a bit 
divergent with the GFS drying the area from the north with high 
pressure building in while the ECMWF keeps the area moist.  For now 
will favor the drier GFS but will still hold onto a small chance pop.
Highs Monday and Tuesday 68 to 75.  Highs Wednesday a few degrees 
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday the GFS shows high pressure moving in from the north. 
Models however remain divergent with the ECMWF remaining much more 
moist. For now, will go with a predominantly dry forecast with only 
30% or less pops Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves 
through. Highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Surface low pressure will continue to move northeast through
west central Pennsylvania this afternoon. A band of rain showers
will continue over the Toledo area through the afternoon and
gradually dissipate. The latest satellite and radar imagery
continue to show some convective activity trying to develop over
the eastern portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Expecting more development as the afternoon progresses over this
area. The central portions of the area should remain for the
most part dry through the afternoon into tonight. There is the
possibility for some fog development at Erie overnight and will
take visibilities down to a mile and a half toward morning. Rest
of the area showing drier air moving in at lower levels and fog
is not anticipated at this time. Otherwise, lower ceilings
expected overnight into tomorrow morning across much of the
area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...Updated to drop small craft advisory and lakeshore
flood warning. Winds, waves and water levels came down quickly
into early evening as expected. 


Original...Will continue with the small craft headline into
the evening. Winds still in the 20 to 25 knot range at a number
of locations. Have also extended the coastal flood warning to 
end at the same time. Winds will diminish quickly this evening 
as the low fills and moves onto the eastern end of the lake. 
Lake levels should then drop back toward recent averages. Sunday
through Monday the pressure gradient will remain weak across 
the lake with light winds expected. Tuesday low pressure moves 
northeast through the central lakes. Winds will turn southwest 
but guidance still suggests 10 to 15 knots for the day. 
Wednesday and Thursday winds will again be light as high 
pressure dominates the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...TK