246 
FXUS64 KFWD 152014
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Today has been a beautiful (but windy) day across North and 
Central Texas with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s.
Strong southerly winds have allowed dewpoints to rise from the 
mid 30s this time yesterday, to the lower 50s this afternoon. 
These gusty south winds are coming to us courtesy a developing 
trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

While winds will diminish a bit after sunset, we should continue
to see southerly surface winds at about 10-15 MPH. These southerly
winds will bring a surge of moisture into our neck of the woods
late tonight, resulting in increasing low-level cloud cover.
Surface winds should be strong enough to prevent fog development
however. Increasing cloud cover and continued warm air advection
will lead to a much warmer night tonight than last night, with
overnight lows barely falling out of the 60s, if at all.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through the Weekend/

A lee surface cyclone will continue to intensify on Tuesday as an
upper trough drops southeast across the Great Basin. The 
resulting moisture return and associated low clouds will keep 
temperatures a little below today's readings, with Tuesday 
afternoon highs remaining primarily in the 70s. The influx of Gulf
moisture will persist Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper
level system progresses east across the Four-Corners region. 
Dewpoints of 60+ degrees should encompass all of north and Central
Texas by the early Tuesday evening, with the 65 degree 
isodrosotherm reaching as far north as the Red River by Wednesday 
morning. 

Scattered warm and moist air advection showers will be possible 
Tuesday night, but the presence of a capping inversion should
preclude the threat for thunderstorms. Model sounding data
indicates a gradual erosion of this protective inversion during
the late morning and afternoon hours, due to surface heating and 
the onset of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching 
system. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible during this 
period but the lack of a focusing mechanism should keep activity 
isolated and disorganized. 

This will likely change during the late afternoon hours as a dry-
line surges east into the western zones. A broad swath of 70
degree dewpoints will proceed the dryline, creating an
exceptionally moist and unstable airmass with CAPE exceeding 3000 
J/KG. This is a bit concerning considering that the stronger 
forcing associated with the upper level system will arrive in the  
afternoon and continue through the evening hours. As convective 
inhibition decreases to near zero, storms should have little 
trouble initiating in the vicinity of the dryline prior to 
sunset. Some storms may develop well in advance of the dryline
due to good forcing coinciding with peak heating hours. Cells 
will likely become severe given the instability coupled with the 
50 kt of bulk shear and steep mid level lapse rates progged to be 
in place. Large and possibly significant hail will be the primary
threat along with damaging winds. Surface to 1 KM storm-relative 
helicity values around 200 will also produce at least a low-end 
threat for tornadoes, mainly early in the event before cells are 
able to grow upscale. 

Convection will likely evolve into a quasi-linear system during 
the late evening hours while crossing the Interstate 35 corridor,
which typically transitions the primary threat to damaging winds 
as storms push into the eastern half of the forecast area. That 
said, if cells remain discrete longer than expected, the hail and 
tornado threat could last a little longer into the night, and
vice-versa. It is still a bit too early to know all of these 
details, especially given that changes in the meso-scale
environment could lead to lower/higher severe weather threats, so
please monitor your latest forecast, particularly if traveling or
have outdoor plans during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. 

The overall progressive nature of the system will bring an end to
all activity by Thursday morning as a cold front pushes through
the region. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected Thursday 
and Friday behind the front, with overall nice weather continuing
through most of Easter weekend. The next system will bring another
chance of rain during the early part of next week.


30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019/
VFR will prevail through the evening hours but the southerly winds
will rapidly bring moisture back to the region. MVFR CIGs just
above 1000 feet are expected to develop around 10-11z in the DFW 
Metroplex and around 9z at KACT. These will likely persist into
the early afternoon hours before lifting above 2000 feet. South
winds will continue at 15-25 kts with occasional higher gusts 
through the entire period. 

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  75  66  77  58 /   0   0   0  50  60 
Waco                61  75  66  78  58 /   0   0   5  50  60 
Paris               56  75  62  74  57 /   0   0   5  50  70 
Denton              60  74  64  78  55 /   0   0   0  50  60 
McKinney            59  75  64  75  57 /   0   0   0  50  60 
Dallas              61  76  66  77  59 /   0   0   0  50  60 
Terrell             59  77  64  76  58 /   0   0   5  50  70 
Corsicana           59  78  64  77  59 /   0   0   5  50  70 
Temple              60  76  66  79  58 /   0   0  10  50  60 
Mineral Wells       58  76  62  82  54 /   0   0   0  40  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/37