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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Product Timestamp: 2019-04-09 15:42 UTC
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103 FXUS64 KFWD 091542 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1042 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 .UPDATE... Quick review of the short term forecast with no significant changes to the current weather or forecast. Trends on winds and temperatures through Wednesday remain unchanged from previous forecast cycle. Van Speybroeck && .AVIATION... /Issued 656 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ /12 UTC/ Concerns---None today, but strong southerly winds for tomorrow. Another quiet weather day across all TAF sites. VFR and high clouds conditions will continue through this forecast period and beyond. Light (less than 10 knots) to calm winds have been dominating this morning and will continue through the next couple of hours. A slow increase in southerly winds through the day is expected across all TAF sites. A more noticeable increase in the wind speed is expected tomorrow (Wednesday) in response a low pressure system that will be located over Kansas moving eastward. Sanchez && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ Warm, rain-free and tranquil conditions are forecast during the short term time period with no major weather concerns to note. Morning patchy fog will linger through the mid-morning hours across parts of East Texas and the Brazos Valley where early Monday rainfall has facilitated the development of some radiation fog. Otherwise, southerly winds will return to most areas during the afternoon hours as the surface pressure gradient intensifies due to the deepening surface trough across the Panhandles/West Texas and the departing surface high across the Piney Woods of East Texas. South winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range are probable across the Big Country with weaker winds across East Texas. High temperatures will be a few degrees greater today compared to yesterday with a few cumulus puffs and high clouds. Tonight will be balmy across the area as surface to 925mb flow increases up to near 50 knots. While nocturnal mixing will be a bit limited some, breezy conditions of 10 to 15 MPH will still persist. This coupled with some modest moisture advection should mean that most locales only bottom out in the low to mid 60s. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ /Wednesday through Monday/ Wednesday will be our warmest day of the week and may be the warmest so far of the year for some locations as a powerful upper trough swings across the Rockies. Strong surface cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado will result in a 980 mb surface cyclone over western Kansas by afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will allow a dryline to push eastward and it should be approaching our far western counties during the afternoon. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will race northward toward the surface low in Kansas and will likely warrant a wind advisory for parts of the area. Temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 80s east of I-35 and will approach 90 degrees in the Metroplex and at Waco. To the west of I-35, we'll likely see highs top out in the mid 90s. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the upper trough well into Wednesday night, but limited moisture means precipitation chances will remain very low. A cold front will slide southward into North Texas early on Thursday resulting in high temperatures running 10-15 degrees cooler by afternoon. We'll remain within a progressive upper pattern with another weak front sliding into the region on Friday. This front will also be accompanied by little moisture and should be dry. Highs on Friday will fall back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. By Friday night, another upstream shortwave will be digging into West Texas. This will be a fast moving, potent system with strong southerly winds above the surface commencing Friday night allowing a surge of Gulf moisture to spread northward. Areas of rain will begin to develop across Central Texas after midnight and will spread east through the night. The strongest low level warm advection and deep layer forcing for ascent will overspread the region early Saturday morning when most of the region should see rainfall. We've been advertising this system as generally a rain maker for most of the region with little threat for severe weather, but the latest ECMWF guidance features a more compact upper trough which digs a littler farther south. This results in a better fetch of moist southerly flow and a better defined surface low somewhere in the vicinity of Lampasas by sunrise Saturday. A well defined warm sector featuring mid/upper 60s dewpoints would spread north into parts of our area during the morning hours based on this latest guidance. Modest instability and favorable deep layer shear profiles (~60 kt 0-6km) would be more than sufficient to support organized convection along with a severe weather threat. We'll continue to monitor this closely over the coming days as several of the EC and GFS ensemble members also feature a more robust warm sector making into our southeast counties on Saturday morning. Highest rain chances will be during the day Saturday with precipitation ending from west to east through the evening. We'll hold high temperatures down on Saturday ranging from the lower 50s in the north to lower 60s in the south, although as mentioned above, if a warm sector can advance northward, these highs will need to be raised by about 10 degrees. Cool high pressure will build into the region on Sunday with temperatures remaining in the 60s and warming into the 70s and 80s for the early part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 66 90 60 73 / 0 0 0 5 0 Waco 90 62 89 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 85 62 85 59 69 / 0 0 0 5 0 Denton 87 64 90 56 71 / 0 0 0 5 0 McKinney 87 63 87 59 71 / 0 0 0 5 0 Dallas 89 65 89 61 74 / 0 0 0 5 0 Terrell 86 62 86 58 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 87 62 86 59 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 89 61 89 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 88 64 95 54 70 / 0 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 11/91