713 
FXHW60 PHFO 080204 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
404 PM HST Sun Apr 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS... 
A weak front will stall near Kauai overnight. Some light showers 
can be expected with the front with most other areas remaining 
dry. High pressure will build in north of the area tonight and 
remain north of the area through the week. Passing light showers 
will tend to favor windward and mauka areas through Tuesday. An 
upper low will take up a position near the Big Island beginning 
Wednesday with a wetter weather pattern expected especially over 
the east end of the island chain. Most showers will continue to 
favor windward and mauka areas but some leeward locations will see
increased rainfall chances as well. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are light out ahead of a weakening cold front which is 
stalling out near Kauai. The front is expected dissipate tonight 
and Monday. The front is rather shallow so heavy showers are not 
expected. Trade winds are expected to gradually make a return
tonight as high pressure builds in north of the area. With the 
return of the trades, showers will become focused over windward 
and mauka areas later tonight and Monday as leftover moisture 
interacts with island terrain. 

The global models are in good agreement showing an upper level 
trough digging down east of the state on Tuesday and eventually 
becoming a closed off low on Wednesday. This will allow for 
inversion heights to rise and possibly be eliminated over the 
east end of the state. Increased shower activity is expected 
especially over windward and mauka areas. Surface high pressure 
will remain north of the area maintaining moderate trade winds 
across the state. 

During the Thursday through Saturday time frame, the upper
low is forecast to be centered very close to the Big Island.
Moisture depth will increase significantly over the east end of
the island chain. Thus there is the potential for snow to fall
over the Big Island summits. Guidance indicates that the airmass
may become unstable enough to allow for some thunderstorms to
develop in the vicinity of the upper low. We will continue to
monitor the situation before adding them into the forecast. 
Otherwise a wet trade wind weather pattern is expected for the 
smaller islands due to an unstable airmass in the island vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weakening front approaching Kauai from the northwest will bring
clouds and light showers to that island. Isolated MVFR ceilings 
along northeast and northwest exposures of Lanai could become 
more widespread late this evening or early Monday. 

Elsewhere, a mostly dry light trade wind flow will predominate. 
Weak sea breezes and inland cumulus can be expected across 
Leeward Big Island this afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR ceilings
are to expected in passing showers, Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail all areas.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect and none are anticipated 
through at least early evening. 

&&

.MARINE...
A dissipating front near Kauai this afternoon will keep winds 
light across the state this evening. As surface high pressure 
builds in behind the front and passes by to the north of the 
islands tonight, winds will begin to increase to moderate and 
fresh levels out of the east-northeast. As the high strengthens 
northeast of the state Monday and Tuesday, winds may reach Small 
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the typically windier areas 
around Maui and the Big Island. The winds are expected to increase
further, into the fresh to strong range,across the entire marine 
area Tuesday night, with near gale force winds possible in the 
windier areas Wednesday through Friday.

A new moderate northwest appears to be peaking at NOAA buoy 51101
this afternoon, which is around 6 to 10 hours later and slightly
smaller than predicted by the WaveWatch guidance. That longer-period
energy is beginning to show at the Hanalei nearshore buoy, but because
of the late swell arrival, surf will likely rise through tonight and
peak early Monday morning below advisory levels. Will monitor this
closely in case the swell comes in higher locally than predicted.
This swell will gradually subside late Monday through midweek, with
small reinforcing northwest swells expected Thursday into next weekend.

Unseasonably small surf will persist along east facing shores over the
next couple of days, before increasing to around advisory level later
in the week as the trades become stronger. Short-period trade wind swell
will build again Tuesday night as trades strengthen, likely reaching
advisory level for east shores by Thursday, continuing through next
weekend. Small surf is expected for south facing shores through the
next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burke 
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...TS