796 
FXUS64 KMOB 051803 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
103 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...The forecast was updated to lower rain chances slightly
across much of the area. The highest rain chances through the
afternoon remain across coastal areas and offshore near the 
stalled front. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...IFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through much of
the afternoon in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Patch dense fog will develop late tonight into Saturday morning
with LIFR conditions expected. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

UPDATE...Considering removing the Marginal Risk of severe storms
for today. The risk is very low, but still not zero, so we will
see what the morning soundings look like before coordinating final
decision with SPC. But, from a consistency standpoint, it is possible
that we will leave the Marginal Risk as overall not much has
changed (it was always a very low chance). 12/DS

AVIATION... 
05/12Z issuance...Some LIFR ceilings early this morning,
persisting at times near scattered to numerous showers and storms
through the day. Some IFR vsbys due to light fog early this
morning too. Vsby's and CIGs generally in the MVFR category trough
most of the forecast period. Surface winds southeast to south
early this, becoming more southwesterly later this morning and
this afternoon, then light southerly tonight. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A warm front over the northern 
Gulf will drift inland over our forecast area today and continue 
to be a focus for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. Maintained the high PoPs across most of the area 
today, especially over southeastern and coastal zones where we 
expect showers and storms to be most likely. There continues to be
a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today, mainly 
for areas along and just south of the frontal boundary as it lifts
inland, but this potential is low. The Marginal Risk area will 
primarily be along and south of Highway 84, where strong to 
locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, although 
as previously stated this is a low potential. 

The LIMITED flood threat has also diminished across the area, 
although a few showers and storms may repeatedly move east across 
the area today and produce localized minor flooding of low lying and 
poor drainage areas, especially south of I-65 in south central and 
southwest AL and over the western FL panhandle. 

With the warm front lifting north across the area and a little 
less rain coverage expected, daytime highs today will be a little 
warmer than yesterday, reaching the mid to upper 70s in most 
locations. A few spots may even see temperatures in lower 80s. 
Lows tonight generally in the low to mid 60s across the entire 
area. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...Will begin the short
term with a subtle short wave upper ridge from the Gulf, northward
across the MS River Valley. Further to the west, next southern
stream storm system ejects slowly eastward from the Four Corners 
of the Desert Southwest Saturday into the Plains Saturday night.
At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped east
to west from off the southeast US coast, westward to central TX.
As the low level ridge amplifies thru the day Saturday, the
frontal boundary lifts northward as a warm front, with any better
surface focus along the boundary also shifting northward. 
Considering little change in environmental moisture coincident 
with daily instability and movement of surface boundary, will 
begin with a chance of showers and a few storms Saturday AM 
becoming more isolated in coverage over the southern zones 
Saturday afternoon while more likely along and north of US Hwy 84.
Given weak low level flow, risk of severe weather is minimal 
Saturday. As storm system moves into the Plains Saturday night, 
amplification of the downstream mid level ridge occurs over the 
southeast. After a small PoP along and north of US Hwy 84 to 
account for any afternoon activity carrying over into the evening,
Saturday night looks non-eventful.

Axis of upper trof moves eastward over TX Sunday with a more 
active southwest flow aloft operating on a zone of deeper moisture
and instability resulting in a return to increased rain chances, 
most notably in the afternoon. Highest PoPS 60% and higher look 
to be positioned over the western zones Sunday afternoon. PoPs 
continue to increase Sunday night, trending to categorical west of
I-65 to likely east of the interstate. A marginal risk of severe 
weather exists generally west of I-65 with a slight risk over 
interior southeast MS and portions of far southwest AL; this risk 
looks to primarily be in the Sunday night time frame when 0-6km 
bulk shear magnitude trends higher to 35 to 40 kts then. Will 
continue to monitor later forecasts for any refinements to risk 
area(s). Temperatures to remain warm and muggy. /10

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Monday looks wet as there
is excellent agreement between the 05.00Z models of the 
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian GEM of showing a large area of ascent moving 
eastward over the central Gulf coast as axis of upper trof moves 
across the Lower MS River Valley and next front approaches. Will 
also be watching for some potential of severe weather during the 
day Monday. Even so, considering outlooks from the storm 
prediction center, there is a question as to how earlier 
convection will modify the local environment, potentially 
mitigating a higher coverage of severe convection. Despite frontal
passage Tuesday, will carry a slight chance of showers and storms
as axis of upper trof pivots across. A dry deep layer environment
overspreads the area Wednesday and Thursday. Next cold front 
looks to approach or move across the Mid-South by Thursday keeping
rain chances late in the period well to the northwest. Warm days 
and mild/muggy nights expected during the outlook. /10 

MARINE...A light to moderate south to southeasterly flow will 
persist through Friday through Sunday night, then begin to increase 
and become more southwest and west Monday as a front approaches the 
marine area from the west and then moves across the marine area 
Monday evening. The front will be followed by a more northwesterly 
flow by late Tuesday. At least Exercise Caution level winds and seas 
will return to portions of the marine area (especially the Gulf 
waters) by Monday. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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