848 
FXUS66 KPDT 040907
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
206 AM PDT Thu Apr 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...The weather pattern 
will be rather active with frequent weather systems moving into the 
Pacific Northwest through the short term period. Today, warm frontal 
precipitation will spread across the southern half of the forecast 
area with the greatest chances of precipitation will be over central 
Oregon and along the OR Cascade east slopes. However, some 
precipitation is also expected over the Blue Mountains eastward. The 
cold front with this system is expected to move across the forecast 
area on Friday and Friday night. This will keep showery weather, 
with perhaps a period of steady rain. Snow levels will be quite high 
so snow will not be an issue. There will be a very short break 
Friday night before the next system brings more precipitation to the 
forecast area with a cold front. Snow levels will drop on Saturday 
so there could be some light accumulations above 3500 feet MSL on 
Saturday. Winds will be mostly light through the period, but they 
will increase on Saturday. 88

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...Models in good 
agreement in continuing upper level southwest flow across the 
Pacific Northwest through Monday. Isentropic lift will provide the 
area with periods of rain Saturday night.  Even though it weakens by 
Sunday morning, weak disturbances embedded within the aforementioned 
flow will continue the threat of precipitation across the area 
through Monday.  Models differ considerably on how they handle the 
next upper level low pressure system Monday night and Tuesday.  The 
GFS is much slower and sags much of the energy over northern 
California while the ECMWF is stronger and farther north over 
southern Oregon. At this time prefer the GFS solution which would 
result in a lessening chance of precipitation over the region 
through Tuesday and primarily focused over Oregon. By Wednesday, a 
transitory upper level ridge should provide mostly dry conditions 
across the region.  Snow levels should begin around 6000-7000 feet 
and slowly fall through the period to around 4000-4500 feet by mid-
week.  Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly above 
normal through the period.  Earle

&&

.AVIATION...Previous discussion...06Z TAFS...No significant changes 
to the previous TAFS. VFR conditions should be expected for all of 
the TAF period everywhere except BDN and RDM. The gusty winds 
earlier today have dropped off. Most locations are now below 10kts, 
but there are a few sites that still are occasionally reaching up to 
15 kts. Expect winds to generally be 10 kts or less. Tonight should 
mainly be dry and VFR at BDN and RDM into early Thursday. By 
afternoon, rain could develop which could lower CIGS to MVFR. 
Everywhere else, CIGS will lower through the course of the day, but 
will remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  45  62  39 /  20  40  50  60 
ALW  63  47  64  41 /  20  40  50  70 
PSC  65  46  67  42 /  10  40  50  50 
YKM  61  43  60  36 /  10  60  60  40 
HRI  65  45  67  40 /  10  40  50  50 
ELN  58  40  57  34 /  10  60  70  50 
RDM  59  39  54  32 /  40  50  70  30 
LGD  58  41  57  34 /  30  40  50  80 
GCD  61  41  59  34 /  30  30  70  60 
DLS  63  44  59  39 /  40  70  80  50 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

88/81/81

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