717 
FXHW60 PHFO 040146
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
346 PM HST Wed Apr 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A high north of the area will move east through the rest of the 
week. A ridge extending west from the high will shift south near 
the islands on Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. 
The trailing end of the frontal cloud band will over the area 
from the northwest over the weekend. Another band of moisture will
move over the islands from the southeast. A new high will build 
northwest of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 3 PM, the surface analysis shows a 1024 mb surface high 350
miles north of Maui near 26N156W moving east at 10 mph. The high 
will keep locally breezy trade winds blowing over the main 
Hawaiian islands through tomorrow. Satellite loops show mostly 
clear skies over Kauai County and over the interior of the Big 
Island, mostly cloudy skies over the lower slopes of the Big 
Island and partly cloud skies elsewhere. Radars show only isolated
light showers over the islands, over mainly the windward slopes 
of the Big Island and east Maui. It will remain mostly dry over 
leeward areas of the smaller islands for the next couple of days 
with isolated to scattered showers over windward areas and over 
the leeward slopes of the Big Island.

The surface high will move east through the week. As the high
moves away, a ridge trailing west from the high will shift south
ahead of a front approaching from the northwest. The locally
breezy trade winds will weaken on Thursday. On Friday, winds will
become light and variable with daytime sea breezes and nighttime
land breezes. Windward showers will subside and clouds and showers
will develop over interior areas during the afternoon.

The front will weaken as it approaches the area, and may 
dissipate before reaching the islands. Whether or not the front
survives, showers along the frontal band will spread over the
islands from the northwest on Saturday. Remnants of the frontal 
band that moved over the islands on Monday persist east of the 
state. That moisture will move back over the area from the east 
and merge with moisture from the front on Monday. Clouds and 
showers from these two systems will linger over the islands 
through early next week. A new high will build north of the area 
over the weekend. Easterly trade winds blowing out of the high 
will keep pushing clouds and showers over the islands. A low aloft
may drop south over the area by the middle of next week and 
further enhance the showers. The global models continue to differ
on how much impact the low will have.

&&

.AVIATION...
With high pressure remaining north of the state through tonight 
and into Thursday, trade winds will be in the moderate to 
occasionally breezy range. VFR will predominate. Any MVFR 
conditions, lower cloudiness and isolated showers, will be mainly
confined to windward and mauka sections over the individual isles.

No AIRMETS are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge north of Kauai will support moderate to locally 
strong northeast to east trade winds through Thursday, gradually
veering to due east. The ridge will begin to slide south Thursday
night as a front approaches, and will be over the islands Friday 
and Saturday, for light and variable winds. Another high building
northwest of the area Saturday night and Sunday will bring increasing
north winds, shifting to northeast by Sunday and east by Tuesday 
as it moves eastward. Forecast guidance remains somewhat inconsistent
as to how far south the front will move, but associated moisture 
is expected to bring an increase in trade showers over windward 
waters Sunday into Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for waters around Maui and the Big 
Island has been extended through Thursday afternoon, due to
locally strong winds hanging around.

The current northwest swell will continue to lower through Thursday.
A longer-period NW swell arriving late Thursday into Friday will 
cause surf to near advisory levels for a short time later Friday. A
similarly-sized northwest swell is possible Sunday and Monday, but
with a slightly shorter period, so advisory level surf is not likely
with that one.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory till 6 PM Thursday for Maalaea Bay, the 
Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big 
Island.

&&

$$
DISCUSSION...Donaldson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...TS