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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Product Timestamp: 2019-04-04 00:14 UTC
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712 FXUS64 KFWD 040014 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 714 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .AVIATION... /00 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling trends at all TAFs and thunder potential at Metroplex. Low level moisture has been slow to slosh eastward towards the I-35/I-35W corridors and this has resulted in VFR for most of the day today. This will change over the next 2-4 hours as winds just above the surface start to slowly veer. In response, cigs should fall into the MVFR category at ACT...FTW and AFW with MVFR expected at all sites by 0400 UTC. Lift will continue to increase and some spotty SHRA will be possible, with the best potential in the near term at ACT. Near and just after midnight, IFR cigs are anticipated as low level moisture deepens across Central Texas (at ACT). Farther north, the potential for a prolonged period of IFR seems a little less likely given the nocturnal mixing and elevated cloud bases and a TEMPO group to address this seems more appropriate for the Metroplex. During the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, our attention will turn towards a loose convective complex now taking shape across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma. With low level flow increasing in magnitude, there seems to be a good potential for the development of SHRA/TSRA south of the Red River. Impacts to both the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts and to northbound departures appears most certain during the morning push and the latest guidance does indicate that convective cells will build southward into D10 airspace. Given the strong low level flow and building instability aloft, felt it prudent to include a few hours of VCTS at Metroplex TAFs from 1000-1400 UTC. If the potential for thunder looks more likely in subsequent guidance and is supported by observational data, a TEMPO TS may be included in later TAF issuances---but confidence to do so now is too low. Otherwise, south winds of 15 to 18 knots are anticipated with gusts in the 20 to 22 knot range. During the late morning to early afternoon hours, VFR and westerly surface winds of 15 knots are expected. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ /Through Tomorrow/ A lee cyclone over the southern High Plains continues to organize this afternoon, ahead of a 90-kt jet streak crossing the southern Rockies. Ahead of this system, breezy south/southeasterly flow has transported a modest plume of moisture (beneath 850 mb) across North and Central Texas this afternoon. Some occasional breaks have been noted within this cloud shield, but the approach of the aforementioned system and re-invigoration of a low-level jet after 00Z will surge low clouds, patchy mist/fog, and a few showers northward overnight. Lowest clouds and greatest coverage of fog should exist over Central Texas, where RH values will be slightly higher within the return flow regime. Most convection across our area overnight should remain rather shallow, given a fairly stout capping inversion above 850 mb. However, near the terminus of the low-level jet (generally southern Oklahoma trailing southeast towards the Sabine Valley), focused isentropic ascent may weaken inhibition sufficiently for a few thunderstorms. Most of these storms will likely remain to our north/east overnight into tomorrow morning, but isolated storms could work into our Red River and/or East Texas counties. Any such cells are generally expected to be sub-severe, but one or two could deepen sufficiently for a hail threat, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable effective shear. Still, dry air associated with the EML will likely preclude parcels from utilizing the entirety of available buoyancy. As the shortwave trough crosses North Texas tomorrow morning, the low-level jet will veer and shift east, focusing aforementioned convection farther east towards the Mississippi Valley. While precipitation chances will reduce considerably across our area, the surface trough will take a few more hours to clear our eastern counties. Veered flow and drying aloft will likely prohibit most parcels from deepening sufficiently for thunderstorm activity through mid-day, but a couple could do so, owing to a narrow pre- trough reservoir of mid/upper 60s dew points. Hail would be the primary threat, although gusty winds would be possible as well. Behind the surface trough, a downslope breeze and clearing skies will boost temps in the 80s in many locations. While fire-weather conditions could become locally elevated, widespread concerns are not anticipated. See the fire-weather discussion for more details. Picca && .LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ /Thursday Night through Wednesday/ Thursday night will be a quiet night as the rain shifts east of the region and a weak front meanders in from the north. This front is expected to stall across our Central Texas counties and remain in that area through at least Friday morning. Some fog may occur early Friday morning within the vicinity of the front. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected north of the front Friday morning, but otherwise Friday will be a warm day as an upper level ridge slides across the Southern Plains ahead of a shortwave disturbance moving across northern Mexico. I have hedged on the warmer side of guidance with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to mid 80s in the west. The shortwave disturbance, and associated upper level trough, will move into southwest Texas Friday afternoon and night, spreading larger scale lift across the region. In response to the approaching system, the stalled front will have lifted north on Friday afternoon allowing dewpoints in the 60s to spread back across the region. Southerly winds through H850 will bring additional moisture into the region, and showers and storms will start to spread across the region from west to east Friday night. Forecast soundings indicate some elevated storms may be able to produce small hail overnight, and we will continue to assess this threat with better model guidance arriving in the next 48 hours. The rain will continue through the day on Saturday, likely affecting outdoor plans across much of North and Central Texas. Showers and storms will prevail through the morning hours, but may start to end from west to east during the afternoon hours. At this time, the upper level shortwave will be pulling north into Oklahoma, but another upper level trough will be quickly digging into southwest Texas on the heels of the first system. This secondary system may prolong rain chances across our western counties, but the influence of this secondary system is not quite fully understood yet. Additional rain will likely occur across part of the region on Sunday as the second upper level trough moves across the state and a front also moves across North and Central Texas...but confidence is low in where the better rain chances will be on Sunday. For now, will carry high PoPs everywhere on Saturday with a slow decrease across our western counties Saturday night. Then will linger PoPs across roughly the eastern half of the CWA on Sunday, but this area may need to be expanded once we get better confidence in the influence of the second system. Severe weather concerns do exist on Saturday, but are not quite clear cut yet. A severe weather risk may exist in the morning hours, but the potential for widespread rainfall may minimize any severe weather threat during the afternoon hours. In addition, the first shortwave will be moving north of the area in the afternoon, taking the best large scale lift with it. This may also work against any severe weather threat during the afternoon and evening hours. However, shear values are good for this time of year and CAPE values aren't bad, including Sunday, and we will continue to monitor the severe weather potential over the weekend. For the remainder of next week, generally dry weather is expected with pleasant temperatures, but we may see afternoon highs approaching 90 degrees by next Wednesday. JLDunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 82 60 83 64 / 50 20 0 5 50 Waco 62 86 60 82 64 / 50 20 5 5 60 Paris 56 74 57 78 61 / 60 50 5 5 50 Denton 60 81 56 82 62 / 50 20 0 5 50 McKinney 60 80 57 80 62 / 50 20 0 5 50 Dallas 62 83 62 83 65 / 50 20 0 5 50 Terrell 60 81 59 82 62 / 50 30 10 5 60 Corsicana 61 83 62 81 63 / 50 30 10 5 60 Temple 61 86 61 83 64 / 50 20 5 5 60 Mineral Wells 59 83 56 85 61 / 30 10 0 5 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/79