National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product ESFOAX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: ESFOAX
Product Timestamp: 2019-04-03 13:51 UTC
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981
FGUS73 KOAX 031442
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-051800-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha NE
851 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/31/2019 - 06/29/2019
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Niobrara River
Verdel 7.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 13.5 15.0 17.0 : 11 9 8 5 <5 <5
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
Norfolk 12.0 13.0 17.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 37 17 27 11 17 7
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
West Point 12.0 16.0 18.7 : 18 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Winslow 17.0 20.0 24.0 : 24 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Logan Creek
Uehling 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 28 20 21 14 9 8
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 14.0 18.0 21.0 : 25 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Duncan 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 18 11 14 9 9 5
:Shell Creek
Columbus 20.0 21.0 22.0 : 57 35 47 28 6 <5
:Platte River
North Bend 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 37 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
Leshara 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 44 30 11 9 <5 <5
Ashland 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 35 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Roca 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 9 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lincoln (N 27th S 20.5 26.5 29.0 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Greenwood 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 30 22 8 5 <5 <5
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 19.0 22.0 23.0 : 67 44 42 29 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ashland 16.0 20.0 23.0 : 43 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Louisville 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 31 17 10 6 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Surprise 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 45 23 17 7 <5 <5
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 70 41 52 24 10 <5
:Big Blue River
Seward 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 53 30 24 10 <5 <5
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 64 45 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Crete 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 66 55 39 19 <5 <5
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 85 48 21 5 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 61 33 8 <5 <5 <5
Barneston 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 45 23 11 6 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 37 12 6 5 <5 <5
:Maple River
Mapleton 21.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Sioux River
Turin 25.0 28.0 34.5 : 16 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Soldier River
Pisgah 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Boyer River
Logan 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 21 15 18 11 10 9
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 24 23 8 8 <5 <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 54 47 33 28 10 9
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 14.0 19.0 23.0 : 48 45 39 35 22 15
Randolph 19.0 22.0 24.0 : 60 52 37 20 14 13
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 25.0 27.5 33.0 : >98 71 66 58 9 9
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 25 19 22 18 <5 <5
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 27.0 30.0 36.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 21 19 7 7 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Decatur 35.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Blair 26.5 28.2 33.0 : 27 21 11 13 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/31/2019 - 06/29/2019
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.7
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 7.5 7.8 8.3 9.9 11.6 13.9 16.1
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.4 9.0 11.2 12.1
Norfolk 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.2 7.7 9.8 11.6
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.9 14.4 16.6 17.0
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.5 10.7 11.4 12.0
West Point 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.9 11.2 12.6 12.9
Winslow 12.9 12.9 12.9 15.2 16.8 19.0 19.6
:Logan Creek
Uehling 9.6 9.6 9.7 12.5 15.5 16.7 17.2
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 6.7 6.7 7.3 8.9 12.2 16.7 17.2
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 8.9 8.9 8.9 11.7 14.0 15.4 16.2
:Platte River
Duncan 5.0 5.0 5.3 6.2 7.2 9.8 10.6
:Shell Creek
Columbus 14.1 14.1 14.1 20.6 21.7 21.9 22.0
:Platte River
North Bend 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.2 9.4
Leshara 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.7 8.9 10.2 10.9
Ashland 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.3
:Salt Creek
Roca 11.7 11.7 11.7 12.8 16.9 19.0 19.8
Lincoln (N 27th S 10.9 10.9 10.9 13.4 16.5 20.3 21.3
Greenwood 13.5 13.5 13.5 16.9 21.1 23.3 25.0
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 17.2 17.2 17.2 21.2 22.2 22.3 22.7
:Salt Creek
Ashland 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.7 17.3 18.7 19.6
:Platte River
Louisville 7.1 7.1 7.1 8.4 9.6 10.9 11.7
:Big Blue River
Surprise 4.3 4.3 4.4 6.6 9.8 10.6 11.0
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 14.3 14.3 14.3 17.2 19.0 20.0 20.3
:Big Blue River
Seward 13.3 13.3 13.4 18.5 21.8 22.6 23.0
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 10.2 10.2 11.9 16.9 19.4 20.5 21.0
:Big Blue River
Crete 20.3 20.3 20.3 24.1 26.3 28.5 28.9
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 12.4 12.4 13.3 14.7 15.9 16.6 17.3
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 14.3 14.3 14.9 19.8 23.7 25.2 26.9
Barneston 15.0 15.0 16.2 19.4 24.0 27.4 28.3
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 14.0 14.0 15.4 17.5 18.9 19.6 20.5
:Maple River
Mapleton 8.7 8.7 10.0 12.4 15.8 20.0 22.4
:Little Sioux River
Turin 15.2 15.2 16.2 19.0 22.8 26.2 27.3
:Soldier River
Pisgah 7.3 7.7 9.3 10.4 12.2 14.5 21.8
:Boyer River
Logan 7.9 8.6 11.3 13.9 18.1 24.8 31.0
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 10.2 10.2 10.8 18.7 24.7 27.7 29.4
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 11.7 11.7 15.0 19.6 23.4 26.8 29.8
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 6.8 7.6 8.7 12.0 22.1 25.0 27.6
Randolph 14.8 14.8 16.1 20.6 22.9 25.3 27.9
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 25.2 25.2 25.5 29.1 30.2 32.9 34.4
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 11.2 11.3 14.3 18.3 21.9 23.9 24.2
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 9.3 9.3 10.2 13.9 16.9 20.3 23.1
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 15.6 15.6 17.0 20.2 24.0 25.5 28.6
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 14.4 14.4 16.0 19.6 22.3 25.3 27.1
:Missouri River
Decatur 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.4 31.7 34.2
Blair 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 26.6 28.5 30.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/31/2019 - 06/29/2019
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 3.9 3.4 2.6 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.8
Norfolk 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1
West Point 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7
Winslow 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.7
:Logan Creek
Uehling 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 3.0 2.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5
:Platte River
Duncan 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
:Platte River
North Bend 4.3 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5
Leshara 5.0 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
Ashland 16.6 16.2 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.8
:Salt Creek
Roca 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Lincoln (N 27th S 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
Greenwood 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3
:Platte River
Louisville 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.6
:Big Blue River
Surprise 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 6.1 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6
:Big Blue River
Seward 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
:Big Blue River
Crete 9.6 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
Barneston 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5
:Maple River
Mapleton 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2
:Little Sioux River
Turin 11.2 10.4 9.5 8.7 8.2 8.0 7.9
:Soldier River
Pisgah 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.6
:Boyer River
Logan 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Randolph 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.2
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8
:Missouri River
Decatur 16.1 13.9 12.2 11.1 10.5 10.5 10.5
Blair 10.4 8.4 7.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/oax for more weather and water
information.
$$