National Weather Service Raw Text Product

514 
FXUS63 KFGF 030302
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Area radars show the one remaining area of showers is moving thru
central ND headed for SE ND. Observations reveal mostly snow
showers. This area of precipitation is moving SE and will need to
adjust pops for this into SE ND. Eventually they should fall
apart...but water vapor shows they be part of a weak short wave
with the center in north central ND moving into NE ND.  


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Cold front has passed through our CWA, however steep low level lapse 
rates combined with lingering forcing aloft has supported isolated 
to scattered shower development. Better mid level lapse rates are 
shown on RAP analysis in northwest MN, where moderate to heavy 
pockets are quickly passing. Most snow is melting on contact, and 
duration is brief enough that only a dusting or 0.5" at the most 
would be anticipated. Stronger pressure rises and good mixing (with 
localized enhancement from showers) is resulting in win gusts around 
40 mph and we couldn't rule out a few gusts to 50 mph before 
stabilization/decoupling around sunset. These winds and more intense 
showers are resulting in visibilities being reduced as low as 1/4 
mile for brief periods, but considering short duration only Special 
Weather Statement was issued. Most activity should end with loss of 
daytime heating.

Quieter weather tonight through Wednesday as Canadian high pressure 
passes over our CWA. There could be a few lingering flurries through 
early Wednesday morning in our far northeast (Lake of the Woods 
county) where guidance holds onto a light precip signal. Lows will 
be in the upper teens/lower 20s, while highs Wed should get to the 
mid-upper 30s most locations (lower 40s south).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Thursday-Sunday night: Westerly flow followed by shortwave ridging
Friday, followed by deeper southwest flow late Friday into
Saturday will result in increasing WAA. Overnight  lows are 
likely to be above freezing during these periods for most of our 
area , especially Friday night and Saturday night. Highs will 
increase substantially with many locations possibly into the 50s 
or even 60s in the southern Red River Valley Saturday. 

Regarding precipitation in these periods: Shortwave trough passage
Thursday-Thursday night may bring brief light precip, but most
forcing splits around our CWA and there is  a limited window for 
moisture advection. Much less confidence in system Saturday-Sunday
night ands there is large spread run-run between 
deterministic/ensemble guidance on evolution of system. Latest 
runs of ECMWF and GFS have completely flipped from previous runs 
with ECMWF strong strong upper low causing issues in our area, 
while GFS will well south. Previous two runs were the complete 
opposite. There is still potential for instability building north 
Friday night-Saturday night with LLJ/WAA possibly supporting 
isolated thunderstorms in our south, but even then if southerly 
track happens showers become less likely (much less thunder). Will
need to monitor as this could be a stronger system, but no 
confidence in if this will be a problem for us.
  
Monday-Tuesday: Progressive pattern is depicted with consensus
favoring temps above normal (highs upper 40s-50s, lows near to
above freezing). Quick moving shortwaves may bring precip chances,
but probably similar to events today or Thursday this week (fast
and light). 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Expecting the gusty NW winds to diminish quickly early evening and
be much lower thru the night into Wednesday as high pressure moves
overhead. Scattered high based CU still around but less coverage
after dark and into Wednesday. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Snow melt and runoff continue to drive a general increase in water 
levels for most locations along the mainstem Red River and its 
tributaries across the southern Red River Valley. The only 
exceptions to this are Wahpeton and Sabin which are seeing gradual 
declines in water levels. However, both of these locations are 
expected to remain in Moderate flood stage through much of this 
week. 

Ice jamming continues to impact the Sheyenne river, especially in 
the Mapleton area where an ice jam was reported just north of town. 
This is causing rapid water level rise into Minor flood stage and 
could lead to Moderate flooding if the ice jamming persists into 
tonight. 

All other river forecast points forecasts generally remain unchanged 
with Major flooding still expected in the Fargo area by the 
weekend/early next week. Ice jamming in the tributaries and in area 
ditches is slowing down run off for now, but with increasing 
temperatures forecast for the second half of the week snow melt and 
run off is expected to accelerate. 

As mentioned, the ice jamming in the smaller tributaries and ditches 
continues to cause areas of overland flooding in the southern 
Valley. Overall conditions have not changed much in the past 24 
hours with the exception of parts of far southeast North Dakota 
where a few county roads have been impacted from minor overland 
flooding. These conditions will likely linger through the rest of 
the week before prolonged above-freezing temperatures help alleviate 
ice jamming/plugging and allow for better runoff.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...AM