514 
FXUS64 KFWD 022044
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
344 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Thursday/

North and Central Texas will experience about another 24 hours of
quiet weather before the chances of showers and thunderstorms
return to the area. 

For tonight, we will begin to see an uptick in cloud cover as 
southerly flow continues. Low temperatures across the region will
range from the middle 40s to around 50. 

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will begin to approach the 
region from the west. Southerly flow will increase further which 
will draw more moisture into the area. Cloud cover will be a bit 
thicker on Wednesday, which will likely keep temps in the mid 60s 
to around 70. Some high res guidance indicates light showers will 
be possible during the afternoon and will keep pops around 20 
percent.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning is the time frame when
the chances of showers and storms will be the greatest during the
short term. Convection should develop along the dryline northwest
of the area over the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK Wednesday
evening where there is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms.
Confidence is low that strong to severe thunderstorms will make it
this far east as capping inversion could be tough to overcome. If
deeper convection were to develop late Wednesday night into 
Thursday morning, then large hail would be the primary hazard.
Most likely location for this to occur would be across North Texas
closer to the Red River. However, this threat is conditional at 
this time and we will continue to monitor the situation.

Pacific front/dryline will sweep through the area on Thursday with
westerly/northwesterly winds developing throughout the day. We'll
see temperatures warm up nicely with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Deeper moisture should be shunted off to the east by the
afternoon, but will keep low chances of showers and storms across
the eastern zones during the afternoon. While the greater risk of
severe storms will be over East Texas by Thursday afternoon, 
we'll have to keep an eye on the southeast zones for any lingering
strong/severe storm potential. Again, confidence is quite low

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday Through Tuesday/

Progressive flow will continue into the upcoming weekend. As a
result, the interlude between the midweek system and the weekend 
rainmaker will be brief. The intervening ridge axis will race past
our longitude Thursday night, but a second unseasonably mild day
will follow on Friday. Increasing clouds across Central and East
Texas will prevent afternoon high temperatures from reaching their
full potential, but many locations will reach 80F for a second
consecutive day as south winds return regionwide.

Like its predecessor, our weekend system will have a pronounced
negative tilt before it reaches the West Coast. This will
encourage the southern extent to separate from the polar stream
and deepen into its own shortwave. Extended guidance shows this
well, but the ECMWF and CMC solutions are more pronounced. Despite
the discrepancies in strength, the track and timing have decent
parity. This should focus the rain event primarily on Saturday.
However, guidance then diverges with the interplay between the
Saturday impulse and another negatively tilted trough hot on its 
heels. Most of the variance will impact the weather downstream; 
however, the outlier GFS and its intense cyclogenesis in the 
Southern Plains may result in a more protracted rain event. 
Unsurprisingly, the GFS ensemble members have considerable spread,
but the vast majority do lag troughing near our meridian early 
next week. The extended forecast favors the ECMWF/CMC consensus 
with a drier start to next week.

As for the particulars of the weekend event, the main concern
still appears to be the potential for heavy rain with unseasonably
rich precipitable water values. However, this impulse will impart
greater shear on a more southerly track than the midweek system, 
and some strong/severe storms could occur as well. Considering the
uncertainties regarding the overall pattern, it would be foolish 
to latch on to any sub-synoptic features at this time. In any
event, a cold front should bring an end to the event, but this
would be far less intense than the previous weekend's. Seasonal
but drier weather would begin the upcoming workweek.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns--- VFR and breezy today, but ceilings will deteriorate 
on Wednesday with the moisture return ahead of the next storm 
system.

Expect another quiet and high clouds weather day across the area.
Southerly winds will continue through this forecast period, 
gusting up to 15-20 mph at times. The main concern for tomorrow 
will be a deck of low clouds moving into North and Central TX as 
moisture gets transported by the southerly flow. MVFR cigs are 
being introduced to the forecast at 15Z for DFW Metroplex sites 
and a little earlier for ACT. Ceiling will likely continue to 
deteriorate after 00Z (with some IFR cigs possible) as a 
shortwave gets closer into our area. We will see showers and storm
chances increasing tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is not yet
mentioned in the TAFs, since it is outside of this forecast
period. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to refine the 
details on the timing on the low clouds and the precipitation.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  68  61  82  56 /   0  10  30  20   0 
Waco                47  69  62  84  58 /   0  20  30  20   0 
Paris               45  70  58  76  54 /   0   5  60  40   5 
Denton              48  69  60  79  54 /   0  10  30  20   0 
McKinney            46  68  60  79  55 /   0  10  40  30   0 
Dallas              49  70  62  82  58 /   0  10  40  20   0 
Terrell             46  70  60  81  56 /   0  10  40  40   5 
Corsicana           46  70  61  80  58 /   0  20  30  30   5 
Temple              47  69  62  83  59 /   0  20  30  20   0 
Mineral Wells       48  70  59  82  53 /   0  10  20   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

11/25