583 
FXUS63 KTOP 021152
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
652 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Recent water vapor imagery indicates a weak weave in mean northwest 
flow crossing southeastern Nebraska early this morning with an 
associated 95 knot upper level jet streak sampled by the LBF 
sounding at 0Z. Light precipitation was impacting locations along 
the MIssouri River not far to the north and could see a few sprinkles 
in the next few hours in far eastern locations as the wave moves on 
southeast with precip limited by dry sub-cloud air. A modest cold 
front was moving into north central Kansas with some low stratus in 
its wake and some of this may linger in far northwest locations this 
morning, but higher clouds are expected to be the more dominant type 
downstream of an upper level trough making its way east-southeast 
into the Pacific Northwest. Highs today should be similar to those 
of Monday despite modest mixing as a weak surface ridge builds in 
and clouds thickening as modest isentropic upglide develops on the 
300K surface. This upglide deepens somewhat overnight but moisture 
depths remain rather shallow despite south to southwest lower-level 
flow developing. Guidance is rather similar with scattered 
precipitation formation and will keep chance PoPs mainly for eastern 
areas where upglide is stronger. Elevated upright instability 
remains largely nonexistent. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

A mid and upper level trough over the Rockies Wednesday morning is 
forecast to traverse the central and southern Plains through 
Thursday. This will bring multiple rounds of showers and isolated 
thunderstorms to the area. Initially A stout EML is expected on 
Wednesday morning before eroding late in the afternoon and evening 
with the approach of the mid level trough. Initial energy exiting 
the trough Wednesday morning will bring a round of showers to the 
forecast area. A warm front moves northward to around interstate 70 
during the day. Isentropic upglide and moisture transport should 
support highest precipitation probabilities to the north of I-70 and 
into Nebraska during the afternoon hours. The location of the warm 
front will play a role in high temperatures on Wednesday with 60s 
to the south and 50s to the north. 

Wednesday night through Thursday the upper trough will move eastward 
with the trough axis moving east of the area by early afternoon. The 
surface low will move eastward during this time as well along with 
an inverted  surface trough across northeast and east central 
Kansas. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be 
likely ahead of the surface boundary into the morning hours on 
Thursday. Highs on Thursday look to average near normal despite 
clouds and morning precipitation. 

Rising heights are expected in the wake of the departing system into 
Saturday with warm advection regime commencing. 850 mb temperatures 
of +11 to +14 Celsius are expected which will yield highs in the 60s 
and 70s. Model uncertainty continues for the weekend system thus 
leading to a low confidence precipitation forecast this weekend. 
Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday into the start of next 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Passage of frontal boundary brings winds to the northwest and
should end the smoke-induced visibility restrictions. IFR stratus
well behind the front is reaching farther southeast than 
anticipated but expect weakening advections and diurnal trends 
to help keep this from reaching the terminals. Precipitation
chances return late in the forecast but impacts should be low and
confidence in its occurrence is too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65